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Low Risk Swing Trading Entry

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Simple Trading Strategies – The 2X Inside Day Strategy

Don't Make Simple Trading Strategies Complicated
One thought that many traders consistently obsess over is how to create simple trading strategies that offer the lowest risk and the highest reward. I can relate to this because I used to go through this type of thought process myself several years ago.

I always thought about ways to minimize my risk and increase my profit potential and it's not something that's always easy to do. One day by pure chance, I stumbled on a trading pattern that allowed me to enter the market with very low risk while maintaining the ability to profit substantially. What I liked best about this method was the strong momentum that follows after the entry signal is triggered. This strategy works with stocks, futures, commodities and Forex in case you trade any of these markets.

The 2X Inside Day Strategy Can Reduce Risk Substantially
This strategy is very easy to find on OHLC chart and I'm sure after this tutorial you will have no problem finding several examples yourself. The first thing you need is a strong trend going either up or down. Anyone who follows my tutorials or enrolled in the courses knows I'm a big proponent of going with the current market trend.

You can see in this example how the stock in this example is trending strongly. You want to make sure you find good trending markets so that your odds avoiding getting stopped out are substantially decreased and your profit potential is substantially increased.

Make Sure You Always Follow The Trend On Daily Charts

The 2X Inside Day Set Up
Once you identify the trend you have to identify the actual set up. The 2X inside day is a cone shape pattern that has two inside days inside of each other. I developed this set up to find days within a trend when the market slows down substantially and takes a breather from volatility. This offers me the opportunity to enter during a quiet period before volatility picks up once again.

I also consider the fact that no lower lows were made and price action was able to maintain inside the previous low demonstrates continuing strength may be ahead. You can see in this example how each day's high and low are inside the previous day's trading range. This is the type of set up you want to find when trading the 2X Inside Day set up.

Each Day Is Inside The Previous Day

You can get a closer look of the pattern in this example. Notice how each succeeding day is inside the previous one. The trading action gets very tight which lowers your risk level substantially when you enter set ups with low volatility such as this one? The entry is $05 cents above the price high that was made on day three and your stop loss level is place $0.10 below the third day's low price. The entry signal must be triggered on the fourth day. If your buy stop does not get triggered on the fourth day you must cancel your order and the trade is nullified.

Due To Low Volatility The Risk Level Is Low On This Set Up

Once the entry stop is triggered you should always immediately place a stop loss order below day three low. The profit target for this strategy is set to 4 times your risk level. In this particular case the risk was only $0.55 cents, so the profit target would be $2.20 added to your entry price. You can see the entire sequence from entry to exit in this example. Trades with risk of less than $1.00 that have 4 times profit potential are considered very low risk trading opportunities and this is what the 2X Inside Day Strategy offers.

The Risk To Reward Ratio On This Strategy Is The Best I Have Seen

2X Strategy Works To The Downside
The 2X Strategy works equally well to the downside as it does to the upside. You can see in this example how the stock broke the uptrend and is developing a good down trend. This is a good example of the type of trading action you want to see before the trade set up. The beginning of a trend is a great place to enter because momentum usually increases as trends continue moving in the same direction.

Uptrend Breaks And Downtrend Begins

Once you establish that the market or stock your trading is in a downtrend, you need to isolate the set up. In this case you would once again look for 2 days that are below the high price of the previous day and above the low price of the previous day. Once you see the set up a few times you will start noticing it over and over again when you scan charts for your daily hit list. You can see in this example exactly what the set up looks like.

Each Days High Price Is Lower Than Previous Days High Price And Each Days Low Price Is Higher Than The Previous Days Low Price

Once you identify and isolate the set up you can place your sell stop entry order $0.05 cents below the low made on day three and once you get filled you should place your stop loss(buy stop) order $0.15 cents above the high that was reached on day three. This example demonstrates exactly where the protective stop loss and the entry sell stop levels go.

Once Entry Stop Is Triggered The Stock Never Looks Back

You can see the entire sequence on a daily chart which may give you a slightly different perspective on the set up and the entire trade sequence. The key to this strategy is isolating patterns where your risk is extremely limited such as these two examples I provided for you today. The risk for each of these two examples was less than $1.00. This is a great risk for a trade that can yield anywhere from $2.00 to $4.00 in profit.

Notice The Stock Fell Another Point After We Got Out Of The Trade
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Market Action

U.S. markets started the week with strong gains as traders shrugged off the air strikes on Syria over the weekend and instead, focused on the earnings season, which will pick up in earnest this week. Volatility continues to subside with the major indexes making a strong run towards key resistance levels.

The Russell 2000 closed higher for the fifth-time in six sessions after rallying 0.9% while making a late session run to 1,566. The Dow also gained 0.9% after testing a high to 24,675 to clear its 50-day moving average but a level that failed to hold into the close.

The S&P 500 added 0.8% after trading to an intraday high of 2,686 while falling a half-point shy of clearing its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq was higher by 0.7% after reaching an intraday peak of 7,178 but fell shy of challenging its 50-day moving average just south of the 7,200 level.

Utilities jumped 1.4% and Materials soared 1.3% to led sector strength. Consumer Staples were up 1.1% while Energy and Industrials rose 1%. There were no sectors that closed in the red.

Global Economy

European markets closed lower across the board following the weekend airstrike attacks against Syria and possible new sanctions on Russia. UK's FTSE 100 stumbled 0.9% and the Belgium20 gave back 0.5%. The Stoxx 600 Europe and Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.4% while France's CAC 40 slipped 2 points, or 0.04%.

Asian markets settled mixed with China's Shanghai tumbling 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng sinking 1.6% over worries about the Hong Kong dollar. Japan's Nikkei was up 0.3% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.1%.

Hong Kong's currency weakened to the bottom of its trading band against the U.S. dollar, leading Hong Kong's monetary authority to try to bolster it by selling $1.23 billion in U.S. dollars to buy Hong Kong dollars.

U.S. Economy

Retail Sales increased 0.6% in March, breaking a string of three monthly declines, and topping forecasts for a rise of 0.4%. Retail sales excluding autos was up 0.2%, as expected.

Business inventories rose 0.6% in February with sales 0.4% higher, matching expectations.

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell 1 point to 69 in April, marking its fourth consecutive decline after hitting 74 in December. Expectations were for a print of 70.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell 6.7 points to 15.8 in April, below forecasts of 18.2.

Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDPNow estimate was trimmed to 1.9% from 2.0% previously last week. The nowcast for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 1.1% to 0.9%.

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Market Sentiment

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said fiscal stimulus is big enough to have an effect on the trajectory of the economy and has him more confident the Fed will achieve its 2% inflation objective. This would allow the Fed to raise interest raises sooner rather than later.

Dallas Fed Kaplan said immigration cannot be cut while also growing GDP and the workforce. He is also very concerned that fiscal stimulus will turn into a headwind in 3-5 years but does not see inflation running away, even though analysts will see wage pressures.

Kaplan reiterated his view that he expects 3 rate hikes this year and more again next year. He doesn't have a problem with Fed policy being restrictive, though the current 10-year yield puts a limit on how high the Fed can raise rates. He went to add he is not interested in creating an inversion in the yield curve.

New York Fed Dudley said 3 or 4 hikes are possible this year but doesn't know how many more hikes will be effected, though he added the market understands that more than 4 hikes is unlikely, as that would not be gradual. He said as long as inflation remains low, the Fed will be gradual.

Dudley added a 3% policy target is a reasonable starting point for a neutral rate, but there's no magic neutral rate that's constant for all time. Regarding stock market valuations, he said they don't look unreasonable given the economy's gains and what's anticipated. He said volatility is returning to normal, and he added the lack of volatility in recent years was the abnormality.

Dudley is not particularly worried about financial conditions and thinks that banks are well positioned to handle a lot more stress. On tariffs, he said there are risks, but it's not clear exactly what will transpire. He does believe a more restrictive outcome, however, would be a bad-bad situation with likely increases in inflation, reduced output, and weaker productivity.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) showed strength into the close after trading down to $120.18 intraday. Support at $120.50-$120 from early April held. A close below the latter would be a slightly bearish development with risk to $119.50-$119 and the 50-day moving average. Resistance remains at $121-$121.50.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) fell for the fifth-straight session after testing a low of 16.38. Fresh support at 16.50-15 held with a close below the latter being a continued bullish development. Lowered resistance is at 17-17.50 followed by 19.50-20.

Market Analysis

The Spiders Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) traded to a high of $246.67 while clearing, but failing to hold, its 50-day moving average for the first time since early March. Near-term resistance is at $247-$247.50 with continued closes above the latter being a bullish development. Support is at $245-$244.50 following the slight breakout of last week's mini-trading range. A close below $242.50 would signal a possible short-term top.

RSI is back in slight uptrend after clearing resistance at 50. Continued closes above this level could lead to a possible run towards 60 and late February highs. Support is at 45-40 on a close back below 50.

Sector

The Spider S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has traded in a tight range between $44.50-$45.25 following the strong move off the $43 level earlier this month. Today's high tapped $45.15 with continued closes above $45.25-$45.50 being a bullish signal. Support is at $44.50-$44 with a move below the latter likely signaling additional weakness.

RSI is holding 50 with multi-month resistance at 55. A move above this level would be a bullish development for a possible run towards 60 and prior support from January. Current support is at 45-40 on a close back below 50.


All The Best,

Roger Scott
WealthPress
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