Hey there, Nil!
Markets are preheating nicely this morning as investors sample some appetizing news about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks, while also preparing for today's Federal Reserve policy decision. The potential reduction in trade tensions has added a sweet taste to what was already a significant market day. Let's dig into today's financial feast! Plus, try your luck and win a $50 Amazon Gift Card! 🎁
- Dan
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- India strikes Pakistan over tourist killings, Pakistan says Indian jets downed
- Israel hits Yemen's main airport in airstrike against Houthis
- US, China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva on Saturday
- Ukrainian drones target Moscow as China's Xi due to visit in support of Putin
- Gaza hunger crisis ripples across health sector as Israeli blockade endures
- U.S. may soon deport migrants to Libya on military flight
- Vietnam's shipments from China to the US reach a record high amid trade fraud crackdown
- US-Houthi ceasefire deal does not include Israel, Houthi spokesperson tells Reuters
- South Korea's former PM seeks distance from martial law in election bid
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Chef's Pick: Digital Payments Recipe |
PayPal beat Q1 EPS estimates with record profits, but trade war fears kept the stock flat. Now down 19% YTD and trading at its lowest valuation ever, it still boasts 436M active users, surging Venmo growth, and a 23% EPS jump. At just 15.4x earnings, PayPal looks like a bargain. (Price at call: $67.85, Current price: $68.05, Analyst expectation long term: $90) |
Nebius Group (NBIS) Nebius Group's latest 20-F reveals a fast-growing AI infrastructure firm scaling aggressively. With 45 MW of data center capacity across Finland, Iceland, France, and the U.S., it has deployed 30,000 GPUs—mainly NVIDIA H200s—and plans to add 22,000 Blackwell chips in 2025. Uniquely, Nebius builds its own servers, cutting costs by 10–12% and enabling efficient air cooling. Its AI Studio now serves over 60,000 clients, supported by a full MLOps suite. Projected Q1 2025 ARR could hit $428M—nearly double prior guidance. With units like Toloka AI and Avride, and management aligned for long-term growth, Nebius is a compelling AI infrastructure play. (Current price: $25.06, Analyst expectation: $30) |
Fed-Trade Policy Balance Strategy: Today's twin market drivers – the Fed decision and U.S.-China trade talks – call for a balanced investment approach. Focus on companies with strong pricing power that can weather sustained higher rates while benefiting from potential tariff relief. Watch carefully for Powell's commentary on inflation vs. employment risks while preparing positions in sectors most sensitive to improved U.S.-China relations. AI Infrastructure Diversification Play: The growing AI data center market offers multiple investment avenues beyond just chip manufacturers. Create a well-balanced portfolio spanning infrastructure providers, cloud platforms expanding AI capabilities, and component suppliers. This layered approach captures growth across the full AI value chain while mitigating sector-specific risks as computing demand continues expanding. EV Market Rotation Opportunity: With Rivian reducing delivery forecasts and Tesla's China sales declining, the EV sector faces headwinds from both tariffs and shifting consumer preferences. Consider rotating exposure from pure-play EV makers to established automakers with diversified powertrain portfolios. Companies with manufacturing presence in markets where they sell can better navigate trade tensions and supply chain disruptions. Biotech Sector Selectivity: Sarepta's 20% plunge highlights the growing pressure on biotech valuations. Focus on companies with established revenue streams, diverse pipelines, and strong balance sheets rather than early-stage single-product biotechs. Pay particular attention to those with ex-US market presence to diversify regulatory and pricing risks in the current environment. Trade Talk Positioning: With U.S. and Chinese officials meeting Saturday in Geneva, build exposure to companies with significant operations in both markets that would benefit from easing tensions. Focus on sectors most impacted by recent tariffs, but avoid overcommitting before concrete progress. Maintain hedges against potential breakdown in talks, as initial meetings often serve as positioning exercises rather than producing immediate results. |
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Investment Bite: Ajna BioSciences Alternative Investment Spotlight |
Ajna BioSciences is raising capital through a Reg CF offering at $4.83/share with a $125.03 million valuation. The company develops botanical drugs for FDA approval, targeting Central Nervous System disorders with psilocybin and cannabinoid therapies for Autism, Anxiety, and PTSD. The Colorado-based company was founded by the team behind Charlotte's Web CBD products and has raised over $27M to build its unique laboratory and advance its pipeline. Ajna has already received FDA clearance for Phase 2 trials of its first drug candidate targeting Autism, while its second candidate for Anxiety is progressing toward Phase 1 trials. The company aims to bridge the gap between botanical medicine and FDA-approved pharmaceuticals, bringing plant-based treatments into the medical ecosystem with physician advocacy and insurance coverage. Their approach addresses the disconnect between traditional plant medicines and modern synthetic pharmaceuticals that often have unintended side effects. Key Investment Details: - Offering Type: Reg CF equity (Series A Preferred Stock)
- Price Per Share: $4.83
- Valuation: $125.03 million
- Funding Goal: $50K - $1M
- Deadline: July 29, 2025
- Minimum Investment: $497.49
- Risk Level: Speculative, illiquid investment with high risk of loss
Investor Considerations: - Led by CBD industry pioneer Joel Stanley, who scaled Charlotte's Web from 0 to IPO with $75M annual revenue
- Medical advisors from institutions including NYU, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins
- Holds DEA Schedule 1 bulk manufacturing registration for botanical psychedelic compounds
- Operates 13,500 sq. ft. DEA-registered lab enabling cutting-edge botanical drug development
- Targets the $678B U.S. pharmaceutical market that remains dominated by synthetic drugs
- Employs a three-pronged commercialization strategy: IP licensing, co-development partnerships, and vertical integration
| Major earnings expected today: - Walt Disney (DIS): Entertainment giant reports fiscal Q2 results after the bell
- Uber Technologies (UBER): Rideshare and delivery leader announces Q1 performance
- AppLovin (APP): Mobile tech and marketing platform serves up quarterly numbers
- DoorDash (DASH): Food delivery service dishes out its latest financials
- Carvana (CVNA): Online used car retailer unveils Q1 results
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Energy producer reports amid fluctuating oil prices
- Emerson Electric (EMR): Industrial technology company shares quarterly performance
- Johnson Controls (JCI): Building solutions provider announces latest figures
- Fortinet (FTNT): Cybersecurity firm reveals Q1 results
- Novo Nordisk
- Arm Holdings plc
- MercadoLibre, Inc.
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US-China Trade Talks Set for Saturday: Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Rep Greer will meet Chinese officials in Geneva, marking the first confirmed discussions since Trump's tariffs. Markets are hopeful for the de-escalation of recent tensions. Oil Extends Gains on Trade Talk News: Crude continued climbing with Brent near $63 and WTI briefly topping $60 after a 3% gain yesterday. Potential easing of U.S.-China tensions boosts sentiment for global economic outlook and energy demand. Novo Nordisk Drops US Gender Requirements: Danish drugmaker ended gender representation targets for U.S. operations following Trump's executive orders on diversity initiatives, while maintaining a global 45% gender representation goal for 2025. Tesla's China Sales Dip: EV maker sold 58,459 China-made vehicles in April, down 6% year-over-year and 25.8% from March. Chinese rival BYD saw a 19.4% sales jump to 372,615 vehicles in another sign of Tesla's competitive challenges. Geely Eyes ZEEKR Privatization: Hong Kong-listed automaker proposed taking its Chinese EV unit private at $2.566 per share. The move reflects ongoing restructuring in the competitive Chinese auto market amid challenging conditions. South Korea Confident on Nuclear Deal: Officials downplayed the Czech court's temporary hold on $18B nuclear reactor project after French competitor EDF filed a complaint. South Korean consortium remains optimistic deal will proceed despite the legal hurdle. Cerence Sues Microsoft and Nuance: AI virtual assistant provider filed copyright infringement lawsuit over text-to-speech technology used in automotive applications. The dispute centers on foundational technology for automakers and transportation OEMs. OpenAI Plans to Reduce Microsoft Revenue Sharing: AI firm reportedly plans to cut Microsoft's revenue share from 20% to 10% by 2030 as part of restructuring. Change follows decision to maintain control under nonprofit parent rather than shifting to commercial structure. |
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD ⬆️ 1.9%): Q1 EPS of $0.96 vs $0.94 expected on revenue of $7.4B, beating $7.1B forecast. Data center revenue surged 57% YoY with Q2 guidance of $7.4B (±$300M), topping $7.2B expectations. CEO Su cited "differentiated product portfolio" positioning for "strong growth in 2025." Super Micro Computer (SMCI ⬇️ 4.8%): Weak FQ4 guidance of $0.40-0.50 EPS (vs $0.66 expected) and revenue of $5.6-6.4B (vs $6.65B consensus). FQ3 revenue of $4.6B missed the $5.05B target. The CEO blamed "delayed platform decisions" and warned of "tariff impacts." Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B ⬆️ 7.9%): Beat Q1 expectations but cut guidance due to "lower branded GLP-1 penetration" from "rapid expansion of compounding." Also dropping U.S. gender representation requirements following Trump's DEI executive orders. Arista Networks (ANET ⬇️ 5.4%): Topped Q1 estimates but warned of declining adjusted gross and operating margins in Q2. Stock fell despite strong results as outlook soured investor sentiment. Rivian (RIVN ⬆️ 0.6%): Q1 gross profit of $206M on sales of $1.2B, beat expectations. Cut 2025 delivery forecast to 40,000-46,000 (from 46,000-51,000), citing vulnerability to "impacts of the global trade and economic environment." Lucid Group (LCID ⬆️ 0.9%): Posted narrower-than-expected Q1 adjusted loss with revenue of $235M, missing $247.6M forecast. Delivered 3,109 vehicles (up 58% YoY) and maintained 20,000 production target for 2025. Tesla (TSLA ⬆️ 1.3%): EV leader rising in premarket following results from industry peers Rivian and Lucid. Stock performance shows sympathy gains despite recent challenges in the Chinese market. Electronic Arts (EA ⬆️ 6%): Fiscal Q4 earnings rose as revenue jumped 6.5% to $1.9B. FY2026 guidance of $7.6B-8.0B in net bookings (vs $7.62B consensus) boosted by new Battlefield and Skate releases. Opendoor (OPEN ⬆️ 10%): Beat Q1 expectations with upbeat Q2 guidance of $1.45B-1.53B revenue (above $1.45B consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $10M-20M (vs estimated -$11.2M). Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT ⬇️ 20%): Cut 2025 outlook to $2.3-2.6B product revenue (from $2.9-3.1B), citing "significant pressures" in broader biotech market. Tempus AI (⬆️ 1%): Posted narrower-than-expected Q1 adjusted loss as revenue of $255.7M topped the consensus of $248.1M. Technology company showing resilience in a challenging market. Palantir (PLTR ⬆️ 0.3%): Stabilizing after Tuesday's 12% drop to $108.86 following solid Q1 report. Some investors are disappointed with the "modest full-year revenue guidance raise" and the "international commercial revenue decline." Wynn Resorts (WYNN ⬆️ 1.7%): Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.07 missed $1.24 forecast as casino revenue fell to $1.04B from $1.12B. The hospitality sector is facing challenges in the current economic environment. Disney (DIS ⬆️ 1.6%): Rising ahead of the fiscal Q2 earnings report due today. Investors are anticipating important updates on streaming performance and the theme park business. |
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ETF Gainers: Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HIMS ETF (⬆️ 35.66%, vol: 4.8M) Coronado Global Resources Inc. CDI (⬆️ 32.61%, vol: 55.0K) Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (⬆️ 20.40%, vol: 22.6M) MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (⬆️ 13.74%, vol: 994.5K) Direxion Daily PLTR Bear 1X Shares (⬆️ 12.02%, vol: 11.4M)
ETF Losers: GraniteShares 2x Long PLTR Daily ETF (⬇️ 24.56%, vol: 2.7M) Direxion Daily PLTR Bull 2X Shares (⬇️ 24.49%, vol: 13.5M) Leverage Shares 2X Long PLTR Daily ETF (⬇️ 24.27%, vol: 247.7K) Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (⬇️ 19.96%, vol: 5.4M) Roundhill PLTR WeeklyPay ETF (⬇️ 16.14%, vol: 93.4K)
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🥡 Don't Miss the RAD Intel Opportunity: With explosive growth and a proven AI platform used by Fortune 500s, this pre-IPO company has an investment deadline of May 8th—Will you be part of their success story? |
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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources: - Multiple loud explosions heard in Pakistani Kashmir (Reuters)
- Israeli military warns residents near Sanaa airport to leave area (Reuters)
- Trump says China wants to negotiate, to meet at right time (Reuters)
- China's Xi set to begin Russia visit in symbolic show of support for Putin (Reuters)
- Gaza hunger crisis ripples across health sector as Israeli blockade endures (Reuters)
- U.S. may soon deport migrants to Libya on military flight, sources say (Reuters)
- Vietnam's shipments to China, U.S. reach record high amid trade fraud crackdown (Reuters)
- Houthi ceasefire deal does not include Israel, says Houthi spokesperson (Reuters)
- South Korea's former PM seeks distance from martial law in election bid (Reuters)
- Drugmaker Novo Nordisk drops gender label in product marketing (Yahoo Finance)
- Oil extends gains on U.S., Chinese demand signals (Yahoo Finance)
- HK-listed Geely eyes privatization of electric vehicle unit (Yahoo Finance)
- Tesla's China-made EV sales rise (Yahoo Finance)
- South Korean officials express confidence in economy's resilience (Yahoo Finance)
- Nebius Group 20-F filing confirms upside thesis (Seeking Alpha)
- Biggest stock movers Wednesday: SMCI, RIVN, UPST and more (Seeking Alpha)
- Stock market movers today (Barron's)
- Ajnabio Sciences public offering on StartEngine (StartEngine)
- Live coverage: Stock market today (Barron's)
- Cerence sues Microsoft and Nuance for alleged copyright infringement (Seeking Alpha)
- OpenAI plans to slash revenue sharing with Microsoft after restructuring (Seeking Alpha)
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