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NVIDIA Price Pullback? Don’t Count on It, Business Is AcceleratingAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 5/21/2026. 
Key Points
- NVIDIA reported accelerating sequential and year-over-year revenue growth driven by AI and data center demand, with strong guidance for fiscal Q2 2027.
- The company raised its annual dividend 25-fold to $1 per share and added an $80 billion share buyback authorization, signaling management's confidence in future earnings.
- Analyst price targets point to roughly 50% upside from NVIDIA's pre-release close, while institutions holding 65% of the stock continue accumulating shares at a 3-to-1 pace.
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Investors and traders anticipating NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings report and hoping for a post-release price decline may be disappointed. Not only were the results aligned with the powerful trend of acceleration, but the market rarely does what is expected when everyone is looking for the same move. NVIDIA’s stock price typically pulls back after earnings, but prior results are no guarantee of future price action. NVIDIA Fires on All Cylinders as AI Flywheel AcceleratesThe main takeaway from the company's earnings release is that NVIDIA’s business continues to fire on all cylinders, driven by AI and data center demand. The results showed sequential and year-over-year (YOY) acceleration and outperformance, reinforced by strong guidance pointing to the same trend for fiscal Q2 2027. Key details include continued strength in data center demand and GPUs, along with emerging momentum in CPUs and other non-data center businesses.
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The likely result is that positive feedback loops continue to strengthen, as reflected by other AI infrastructure names, driving demand for NVIDIA’s products and services at every level. Among the signals investors should note is the increase in capital returns. The company has raised its dividend payment by 25X to $1 annually while increasing its buyback authorization by $80 billion. The move reflects the company’s fortress-like financial position and management's confidence in future results. Balance sheet highlights also reflect the company’s aggressive acquisitions and investments, with cash down $40 billion, or 75% YOY. However, that is the worst that can be said. Even so, cash is up nearly $3 billion, or 30%, sequentially, to more than $13.5 billion, and it is expected to rise significantly each quarter barring further acquisitions. The capital return story is not especially robust; the trend is what matters. As it stands, NVIDIA has established itself as a dividend grower, is now expected to increase its payments annually, and is more than capable of doing so. The payout ratio remains low, below 15%, with earnings hypergrowth forecast to continue for at least a few more quarters and then sustain a solid double-digit pace for years beyond that. Share buybacks are more meaningful, having reduced the share count by approximately 0.9% YOY, and are likely to continue, if not accelerate, over time. The new $80 billion authorization is enough to support the Q1 pace for about five quarters. NVIDIA Signals the Future of AI: Data Centers and Edge ComputingAnother signal for investors to note is the shift in reporting segments. The company reorganized into two operating segments, Data Center and Edge, highlighting the technology revolution underway. The change points to what computing will look like in the future: data center-driven AI and inference delivered through edge devices and the IoT. That includes robotics, autonomous vehicles, and industrial automation, areas in which NVIDIA has been investing heavily. Analysts have been slow to revise their targets, but the bullish trend is likely to continue. Activity leading into the release included numerous reiterated ratings and price targets raised above consensus, and the results were clearly better than expected. The consensus target, which implies approximately 25% upside from the pre-release close, is up more than 70% YOY, with recent revisions pointing to the $350 level, or about 50% upside from the pre-release close. Undervalued NVIDIA Has Ample Upside PotentialA 50% upside looks like an easy target for this market. While NVIDIA’s premium has been rebuilding, the 26X earnings multiple at which it traded prior to the release still represents a discount, and the earnings outlook has improved. Looking ahead, assuming NVIDIA can grow in line with its outlook, the stock trades at only 6X the 2030 consensus earnings forecast, suggesting 300% to 400% upside is possible. And the sell-side forces remain favorable to investors. The institutions that own 65% of the stock, including more than 8,700 ETFs and mutual funds globally, have been accumulating at an aggressive $3-to-$1 pace, while short sellers remain on the sidelines. Although the value of short interest has risen, that is a function of the stock’s price: short interest as a percentage of the float has been steady for many quarters. The immediate market response, which carried over from after-hours trading into the pre-market the next day, was modest. NVIDIA’s shares fell about half a percent and remained within that range. It is possible the stock could decline in upcoming sessions, but the downside appears limited. Critical support sits around the 30-day exponential moving average near $210, just above the prior highs, and would likely trigger a strong market response if and when it is tested. Catalysts for the rally include upcoming releases from NVIDIA customers, including the four major hyperscalers and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), which will reinforce plans for AI infrastructure spending.
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Aeluma's Post-Earnings Dip Creates a Buying OpportunityAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 5/15/2026. 
Investors looking at Aeluma’s (NASDAQ: ALMU) position in AI and the April stock price increase got an opportunity after the company’s fiscal Q3 release. Through no fault of its own, the company missed revenue expectations, which were not particularly high to begin with. Aeluma is technically a pre-revenue company, with forecast revenue of $1.35 million tied to government contracts. Those contracts were not revoked; they were simply delayed by government shutdowns that have since been resolved.
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The biggest impact on Aeluma has been the delayed start of some projects, but there is no serious impact on its commercialization process. Aeluma Advances Strategy in Q3: That’s What MattersThe company's commercialization process continues to advance. Q3 highlights included new or expanded partnerships with Tower Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TSEM) and Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technology (OTCMKTS: SOMMY) for wafer processing and production. Sumitomo will apply thin-layer compound semiconductor material to existing semiconductor wafers, then send them to Tower Semiconductor for final manufacturing. Because the compound material is applied directly to the substrate to create a hybrid wafer, the output conforms to standard manufacturing processes, enabling a more streamlined, cost-effective, and time-efficient process. Aeluma also has exposure to a number of end markets, including AI, datacenters, autonomous vehicles, industrial applications, and space. While it is preparing to manufacture a wide range of photonic products, the focus is on quantum dot lasers. Quantum dot lasers offer superior performance, cost, size, and scalability compared with traditional photonic devices and are poised to disrupt the industry. Their primary advantages include temperature stability, tolerance, and lower energy thresholds. Quantum dot lasers function normally at high temperatures, reducing the need for external cooling, tolerate a wider range of defects in the underlying silicon substrate, and use less energy. Aeluma Stumble Triggers Buying OpportunityAmong the risks for investors is capital needs and dilution. The company is well-capitalized in 2026, but that came at a cost, and additional capital may be required. As it stands, the company has nearly $38 million in cash, which is sufficient to sustain operations, but its share count has increased by more than 36% over the trailing 12 months. The company will likely raise small amounts through share offerings to fund operational milestones in upcoming quarters, but another significant capital raise is unlikely until 2028. Aside from that, the balance sheet is in good shape, with no long-term debt and minimal liabilities. The impact of the revenue miss and reduced guidance on Aeluma’s share price was severe, but traders and investors should take it with a grain of salt. The approximately 35% selloff that followed earnings was directly related to the strength of the preceding run. ALMU stock advanced by more than 200% in about five weeks and was due for a correction regardless of the news. The critical detail was what came next: a buying signal. 
ALMU’s stock opened with a gap lower and extended the decline, crossing a critical threshold and triggering a buying frenzy. That threshold is near $23.50, coincident with the top of a trading range and now a strong technical support level. Support is evident on both the weekly and daily charts, as shown by candlestick formations and elevated trading volume, suggesting ALMU’s uptrend may not be over just yet. Analyst and institutional data suggest these groups are buying the dip. MarketBeat tracks five analysts with trends showing covering rising, a firm Moderate Buy rating, an 80% buy-side bias, and a steady price target. The price target is interesting because it is about $25, very near the critical support level, and it strengthens the idea that ALMU hit a hard floor with the mid-May price plunge. Institutions, on the other hand, own about 25% of the stock and have been accumulating at a pace of approximately $4-to-$1 since the IPO, sustaining the bullish trend in early Q2 2026. Aeluma Has Catalysts AheadUpcoming catalysts for Aeluma include the company’s improving customer demand profile. The company noted improving demand interest across the spectrum, with AI underpinning the increase. In management’s view, hyperscalers and enterprises are looking for long-term solutions that Aeluma can provide. Other catalysts include the growing number of patents, now at 36, and the potential for long-term monetization. The patents cover Aeluma’s manufacturing process and design architecture, cementing its role as a source of heterogeneous semiconductor integration and mass-production techniques critical to the semiconductor supply chain. The biggest risk is adoption. While Aeluma has strong potential and improving end-market demand, no OEM has committed to the product. In this scenario, Aeluma risks being displaced by another solution, limiting its opportunity to capitalize on the market. However, the likely outcome is that Aeluma continues to advance its capabilities and eventually secures its first major customer. In that scenario, ALMU’s stock price will likely return to fresh highs. |
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