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HubSpot at 2019 Levels Is an Opportunity—Not a WarningAuthor: Sam Quirke. First Published: 5/23/2026. 
Key Points
- HubSpot shares have fallen more than 75% from last year's high and are back at 2019 levels, despite the company delivering record revenue and making tangible progress with its AI pivot.
- Last week's earnings report may have marked a bottom, as shares have been bouncing back from their post-earnings low and insider buying has started for the first time in years.
- Several analysts rate HubSpot a Buy, with recent price targets suggesting as much as 80% upside from current levels.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of HubSpot Inc. (NYSE: HUBS) are trading near $200, having recovered from the $174 low they hit following the May 7 earnings report. The software stock is still down more than 75% from last year’s high and has lost roughly half its value since January alone. That kind of price action has made HubSpot one of the harsher casualties of the broader SaaS selloff over the past year. For additional context on just how bad the chart looks, HubSpot is back trading at the same levels it reached in 2019, even though the company continues to deliver record revenue prints every quarter. That’s the core tension facing HubSpot and would-be investors today. The stock price and chart tell a story of a business in serious trouble, but the fundamentals tell a very different one.
Goldman Sachs just revealed that 40% of AI data centers will be crippled by electricity shortages by 2027 - not chips, not funding, but power. Demand is growing 15% per year and the grid can't keep up.
One small company makes the exact equipment these data centers need. They're sitting on $1.5 billion in orders, their hardware is already inside Musk's Colossus, and the stock still trades like a name nobody's heard of. Analyst Dylan Jovine is releasing the ticker for free. See the stock positioned to solve AI's biggest power crisis
Last week’s earnings report showed HubSpot once again beating expectations, with 23% year-over-year revenue growth, an increase to full-year guidance, and achievement of its 2027 operating margin target a full year ahead of schedule. In that light, is there an argument to be made that the market has gotten this one horribly wrong, and that we’re actually looking at a serious buying opportunity? Poor Initial Reaction to EarningsThere’s no getting away from the fact that the initial reaction to the May 7 earnings results was ugly, with shares selling off about 30% from pre-earnings levels and setting a fresh multi-year low. Despite the headline beat, investors were understandably spooked when management admitted the quarter had gotten off to a slow start, but the broader context matters. HubSpot is midway through a transition to an outcome-based pricing model for its AI agents, which naturally extends sales cycles as sales teams are retrained and customers evaluate the new tools. If there was a short-term disruption at the start of the quarter, it was intentional and strategic, not a sign of demand falling apart. But Its AI Pivot Is Starting to Gain TractionOne of the more important things to consider about the HubSpot opportunity right now is how its AI monetization efforts are already showing up in the data, rather than just in management talking points. According to last week’s report, total AI credits consumed by HubSpot’s customers jumped nearly 70% from the previous quarter, suggesting meaningful adoption and buy-in from its customer base. There’s also HubSpot’s ongoing shift to outcome-based pricing to consider, and this is shaping up to be one of its more strategically interesting moves. Outcome-based pricing is something many, if not most, SaaS companies are striving toward right now, as the old seat-based pricing model was made redundant almost overnight by the rise of AI-enabled vibe coding. While the near-term friction of making this pivot is real, ultimately tying costs to quantified outcomes supports two big things. First, it aligns HubSpot’s revenue directly with customer value, which should help its retention and expansion efforts. Second, it sets HubSpot up for success as a SaaS business in an AI world. Peers that fail to make this pivot may find it increasingly difficult to remain competitive in the coming months. Another Signal the Market May Be MissingBeyond the fundamentals, there are other data points worth highlighting that support the bulls’ thesis. According to MarketBeat’s Insider Trades tool, this quarter marks the first time in a long time that HubSpot insiders bought the stock rather than just selling it, with the CTO and CEO making more than $2.5 million in combined purchases. It’s not unreasonable to wonder whether the people who know the business best have chosen this moment, at multi-year lows, to put their own capital to work. That’s a signal that is hard to ignore. Bullish Analysts and an Attractive ValuationMany in the analyst community have been arriving at a similar conclusion. Canaccord Genuity, Sanford Bernstein, and Goldman Sachs have all reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings in recent weeks, with fresh price targets ranging up to $382, implying potential upside of more than 80% from current levels. Others, like BNP Paribas, have taken a more cautious Neutral stance, but the weight of conviction behind the bullish price targets alone makes for an attractive risk/reward profile. The stock’s valuation matters too. HubSpot’s latest P/E ratio might sound high at around 110, but considering it started the year above 400, there’s an argument that it is actually quite low right now. Add in the fact that this is a business printing record quarterly revenues, while its AI pivot gains traction and insiders start buying the stock again, and it becomes much easier to argue that the collapse has created a comeback opportunity that may be too good to miss. |
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