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This Month's Featured Story
On Holdings Sets Up for Marathon Rally: New Highs Are ComingAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 5/12/2026. 
Key Points
- High-quality On Holdings is setting up for a marathon run that could take its stock price up by triple digits over the long term.
- Growth and operational quality underpin the outlook, with forward estimates suggesting the price can increase by several multiples.
- Institutions are accumulating shares and limiting downside risk in Q2.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
On Holdings’ (NYSE: ONON) share price faces several headwinds, including macroeconomic pressures, a surprise CEO change, FX conversion, and slowing growth, but those challenges appear to be priced into the market. Even so, the company continues to perform well, sustaining a rapid growth pace and widening margins in a world where market share is still up for grabs. Its biggest competitor is Nike (NYSE: NKE), and Nike is still a long way from reclaiming its former glory. For ONON investors, the key takeaway is that the stock trades at a significant discount to its outlook, an outlook that was boosted by its May guidance update, suggesting triple-digit upside for patient investors. ONON Stock Poised for Significant Near-Term Upside
Goldman Sachs just revealed that 40% of AI data centers will be crippled by electricity shortages by 2027 - not chips, not funding, but power. Demand is growing 15% per year and the grid can't keep up.
One small company makes the exact equipment these data centers need. They're sitting on $1.5 billion in orders, their hardware is already inside Musk's Colossus, and the stock still trades like a name nobody's heard of. Analyst Dylan Jovine is releasing the ticker for free. See the stock positioned to solve AI's biggest power crisis
Between now and then, there is also a substantial near- to mid-term opportunity. The company not only trades at a discount to its forward outlook and a low-ball estimate, but also to its competitor, suggesting room for multiple expansion over both the near term and the long term. Additionally, analysts remain committed to this name, providing a solid support base for accumulating shares. Data tracked by MarketBeat reveals 19 current ratings, a Moderate Buy consensus, and a 79% Buy-side bias. The price target is the operational detail following the Q1 2026 earnings report, forecasting more than 70% upside from the critical support level. As it stands, the price target has been steady on a trailing 12-month basis (TTM) and is unlikely to change significantly without a shift in the outlook. The critical support level is near April lows, just below $32, and is likely to be tested. 
Institutional data suggest that support at the critical level is strong and that a rebound from there is likely. Institutions own only 37% of the stock, but they have been aggressively accumulating shares over the TTM. The data shows buying at nearly a $2-to-$1 pace, with activity ramping sequentially to a record high in Q1 2026. The pace remained bullish in early Q2 and will likely stay that way given the valuation. The biggest risk from the sell side is insiders, but even that is not alarming. Ex-CEO Martin Hoffmann is exiting his stake as part of a prearranged plan triggered by his departure; aside from that, insiders, including the founders/co-CEOs, hold a significant stake and are not selling. On Holdings Raises Profit Guidance After Hot QuarterOn Holdings had a solid Q1 report, with revenue growing 14.5% year-over-year (YOY) and 26.4% on a forex-neutral (FXN) basis, with strength across all channels, geographies, and product lines. DTC, the higher-margin segment, grew 16.4% and 28.7% FXN, while Wholesale grew 13.3% and 25.1% FXN, with both segments underpinned by strength in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Apparel. Regionally, APAC led with gains of 44.4% and 61.4%, followed by a 25.6% FXN increase in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and a 13.3% FXN gain in the Americas. Among product categories, the core shoe segment grew by 12.2%, or 24% FXN, while Apparel grew by 57.5% FXN to 20% of the business, and Accessories grew by 86.6%. Margin news was also strong. The company posted improvements at the gross, EBITDA, and net income levels on both a GAAP and adjusted basis. GAAP and adjusted earnings increased by 82% and 76%, respectively, both ahead of consensus and reinforcing the impact of Q1 strength on the outlook. The company cited operational strength and execution as drivers of margin improvement, reaffirming the revenue forecast and raising the full-year margin outlook. Executives expect an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 19.5% to 20% range, a full 100 basis points better than the previous guide, while the revenue outlook remains likely conservative. Either way, the revenue guide still calls for a YOY slowdown in growth, but sequential acceleration through year-end. On Holdings: A Solid Brand With Catalysts AheadWhile the company’s headwinds are unlikely to ease, including uncertainty and tariff-related cost pressures, there are catalysts in place to drive outperformance. They include strength in DTC, APAC, and Apparel, as well as the LightSpray innovation. It enables rapid, wasteless, automated shoe construction, paving the way to significant margin improvement and operating efficiencies. It uses a robotic arm to spray a mile-long filament onto a shoe mold, which instantly hardens into a laceless upper. The strength of On Holdings' business and brand is reflected in the balance sheet highlights. The company increased cash, working capital, current assets, and total assets while reducing total liabilities. Equity improved by 8.5% on a year-to-date basis and will likely continue increasing as the year progresses. |
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