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How To Trade Momentum Breakouts

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Trading Strategies – Momentum Breakouts

One Of The Best Short Term Trading Strategies Is Based On Momentum
Today I'm going to show you one of the best day trading strategies for beginners as well as experienced day traders. I learned this strategy about 17 years ago and a still use it to this day with only a few minor modifications. The strategy is a momentum breakout technique that catches stocks and other markets while they are going through a period of heavy volatility and momentum.

One Challenge Traders Face Is Finding Momentum
Anyone who has basic experience day trading will tell you that one of the biggest challenges for most traders is finding stocks and other markets that are moving with sufficient momentum and volatility to make day trading worthwhile.

I can tell you from personal experience that there's nothing more frustrating than getting into a fast moving market only to see it slow down immediately after my entry order has been filled.

Because day trading is based on intraday momentum, you want to make sure the markets you chose and the strategies you pick have enough momentum to justify your risk.

Always Start With Daily Chart
You want to start with the daily chart so that you can see the past trading history and the characteristics of the market you choose to trade.

I start out by monitoring stocks that are close to 90 day breakouts. As you know based on my previous articles the 90 day breakout produces the highest ratio of winning to losing trades.

The best candidates for my trades either gap up to a 90 day high or reach the 90 day high by way of extended trading range. I will show you both examples so you can get a good idea of the type of set up you need to find.

The Stock Reaches 90 Day High By Gapping Up Through The Upper Resistance Area

You Need Confirmation Prior To Entry
Once the stock breaks out above the 90 day high I wait for a confirmation signal. There are too many false breakouts and I want to make sure that the momentum is real and not ending immediately after the price breaks out of the trading range.

My condition to entry is a gap day following the breakout from the 90 day price high. This means if the price broke out of the 90 day range by way of gaping up I will want to see a second gap day prior to my entry.

You can see in this example how the stock breaks out and once again gaps up for the second day in a row. This is would be sufficient for me to justify entering the stock.

Notice How The Stock Gaps Again After Breaking Out Of The Trading Range

How To Enter and Exit The Trade
Once you get a solid confirmation by way of a second gap, you can safely enter the market. My advice would be to watch the market carefully prior to the opening and get a feel for the stock you are trading.

If the stock or other market you are trading opens with a gap up you can safely enter a market order assuming there's sufficient volume in the market you are trading.

Most market orders get filled instantly so you will be assured that your condition to entry has been completely satisfied prior to your order being executed.
Once your order is executed you stay with the trade till the closing bell. Since this is a momentum strategy the odds of the closing price being in the top 20th percentile of the highest price is roughly 80 percent so I suggest you hold the trade till the closing bell and exit MOC or (Market on Close)

Your Stop Loss Order Is $0.05 Cents Below The Low Made On Entry Day

How About Another Example
If you were paying attention a few minutes ago you might have noticed that I said that the first or the initial breakout outside the trading range does not have to be a gap but can be an extended range day.

I want to make sure you clearly understand the concept of extended trading range so this example utilizes a stock that breaks outside of the 90 day trading range through volatility and price instead of gaps.

Everything beyond that point is the same except the initial set up can substitute the first gap if the extended trading range is sufficiently strong enough.

There's a formula to calculate the extended range but I will save that explanation for another day. Here you can see how the stocks trading range is almost triple the recent trading range for this stock. This is the type of strong trading range you want to see breaking out of the 90 day price high.

The Breakout Bar Is About Three Times The Size Of The Average Trading Bar For This Stock

Once you identify the stock with a sufficiently high breakout range or a gap as we saw in the previous example you can begin monitoring it prior to the next day's morning opening session to make sure you see a gap opening.

Remember that no matter how good the initial breakout looks you have to make sure your entry is preceded by a gap no matter what. Here's a perfect example of an extended trading range breakout followed by a gap immediately prior to entry.

You Have To Wait For The Gap Prior To Entry No Matter What

You can see in this final example how the entry and the exit appear on an intraday chart. Notice I wait for the gap and then enter a market order immediately after the opening gap.

The order typically takes about 3 seconds to execute on a volatile market. I recommend you watch the market closely prior to the opening so that you are ready to go when and if the gap occurs. The stop loss level is placed $0.05 cents below the gap bar so you should have no problem identifying it and placing it immediately after you are filled.

Place Your Stop Loss Order Immediately After You Get Your Entry Fill Back

Things To Keep In Mind
The Momentum Breakout is one of the easiest and productive day trading methods for traders looking for momentum set ups. Remember that the breakout can be either a gap or an extended range bar.

Either way, you cannot enter the trade prior to a confirmation gap that occurs at the opening after the breakout outside of the trading range.

Make sure you place your stop order immediately after you receive your fill and don't try to exit the strategy prior to the closing bell. This is pure momentum so you want to make sure you give the strategy time to work.
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From the WealthPress Mailbag

Norman F. writes…

"I have become a better trader thanks to your wonderful teaching and the way you approach the markets. The daily set ups with the entry, stop and exit let me know exactly what I need to do and no stone is left unturned."
Market Action

U.S. markets showed opening weakness to push fresh weekly lows into the first half of action before making a strong push afterwards to finish mixed. The breakthrough into positive territory during the second half of action showed signs of a possible bottoming process and comes ahead of Friday's employment numbers. Volatility spiked on the choppy action but held key levels of resistance on the session lows.

The Russell 2000 was down 0.5% after trading to a low of 1,532 while closing back below its 50-day moving average. The small-caps also held its Tuesday low of 1,527 and was a slightly bullish signal.

The Nasdaq gave back 0.2% following a morning and weekly low of 6,991 but has been holding crucial support at the 7,000 level for 18 sessions. Tech remains trapped between its 50/200-day moving averages.

The S&P 500 stumbled 0.2% after trading to a low of 2,594 before holding 2,600 into the closing bell. The level has been holding since April 3rd with risk to 2,575-2,550 on a close below 2,600.

The Dow was up 5 points, or 0.02% despite trading down to 23,531 while closing below the 24,000 level for the 2nd-straight day. Both the Dow and S&P 500 breached their 200-day moving averages and weekly lows but levels that held into the closing bell.

Materials gained 0.5% while Technology and Industrials were higher by 0.2% and were the only sector winners. Health Care and Financials led sector laggards after bleeding 1% and 0.9%, respectively.

Global Economy

European markets were lower across the board on concerns over the slow pace of inflation which is dovish for ECB monetary policy. The Belgium20 sank 1.3% and Germany's DAX 30 dropped 0.9%. The Stoxx 600 Europe was off 0.7% while France's CAC 40 and UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.5%.

Eurozone March PPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year, matching expectations.

The Eurozone April CPI estimate rose 1.2% year-over-year, weaker than expectations of 1.3%. April core CPI rose 0.7% year-over-year, weaker than forecasts of 0.9%.

The UK April Markit/CIPS services PMI rose 1.1 to 52.8, missing forecasts of 53.5.

Asian markets closed mostly in the red as U.S trade talks with China gets underway with representatives from both sides dialing back expectations for a breakthrough. China said it won't agree to preconditions for trade talks while Trump representatives said they might leave the talks early if no common ground is found.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 1.3% and South Korea's Kospi gave back 0.8%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei declined 0.2%. China's Shanghai gained 0.7%.

U.S. Economy

Challenge Job-Cut Report announced layoffs of 36,081.

International Trade in Goods deficit narrowed 15.2% in March but is still $49 billion in the hole. Imports fell 1.8% to $257.5 billion while Exports increased 2% to $208.5. The real goods balance narrowed to -$62.1 billion with imports falling 1.6% and exports up 2.9%. The trade deficit with China was at $25.9 billion while the balance with Canada moved to a $300 million surplus from -$400 million.

Jobless Claims climbed 2,000 to 211,000 in the week ending April 28th. This brought the 4-week average to 221,500 from 229,250. Continuing claims dropped 77,000 to 1,756,000 in the April 21st week, representing the lowest since late 1973.

Productivity rose 0.7% with Costs up 2.7%. For Q1, output was up 2.8% versus 3.7% previously, with hours at 2.1% from 3.3%. Compensation per hour rose to a 3.4% pace from 2.4%. Real compensation slipped 0.1%.

PMI Services Index for April checked in at 54.6, topping expectations of 54.4.

Factory Orders were up 1.6% in March versus forecasts consensus of 1.3%.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell 2 points to 56.8 in April versus forecasts for a print of 58.4. The employment component slid to 53.6 from 56.6. However, new orders improved to 60 after falling to 59.5 previously. New export orders increased to 61.5 from 58 while imports slipped to 54.5 from 55. Prices paid edged up to 61.8 from 61.5.

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Market Sentiment

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) snapped a two-session slide after reaching an intraday peak of $119.31. Upper resistance at $119-$119.25 and the 50-day moving average held with continued closes above the latter being a slightly bullish signal for a run at $120. Rising support is at $118.50-$118.25.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) zoomed to a high of 18.66 shortly after the open with backup resistance at 18-18.50 and the 50-day moving average holding. The close below 16.50-16 was a slightly bullish signal but levels that need to hold into the weekend. A move back above 17.50 intraday would a bearish signal. Fresh support is at 15.50-15.

Market Analysis

The Spider S&P 500 ETF (SPY) stumbled to a morning low of $259.05 with support at $259.50-$259 and the 200-day moving average holding. A close below the latter would be a bearish development with downside risk towards $257.50-$255 and the beginning of April lows. The rebound to $263.36 afterwards keeps near-term resistance at $263-$263.50 in play.

RSI has been in a downtrend with support at 40 from early April holding. A move below this level would signal a possible retest to 35-30 and February/ March lows. Resistance is at 45-50.

Sector

The Health Care Select Sector Spider (XLV) fell for a 4th-straight session after testing an intraday low of $79.31. Support at $79.50-$79 held with a close below $78.75 possibly representing a shorting opportunity. The beginning of April low tapped $78.74 and the 52-week low is at $74.45. Lowered resistance is at $80.75-$81.25.

We mentioned in early April the 50-day moving average was on track to fall below the 200-day moving average to form a bearish death-cross. Although the 50-day moving average had flattened out in mid-April, this technical setup is back in play.

RSI is trying to hold near-term support at 40 with risk towards 30 and February/ March lows on a close below this level. Resistance is at 45 and the late April high.


All The Best,

Roger Scott
WealthPress
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