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Look for the market to drop now!

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What is going to happen next?
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I now look for the market to start to drop. Yesterday was the trigger and now the market will drop to at least 4400 and maybe challenge the lows of the move from the December highs.

The chart above shows the S&P as the chart and the red line is the On Balance Volume.

There are two items on this chart which suggest lower prices combined with other factors.

So why drop now?

First, the sharp rally is unsustainable. It is extraordinarily rare that a market would continue such a vertical climb for another week. Also note that the market didn't have any down days when it started but had a couple of down days earlier this week which showed the bulls were running out of gas and the bears were mounting a counter attack.

Yesterday's loss was like the Ukrainians counter attacking the Russians!

In this case, the bear took control of the market and smacked it down!

There is another factor that suggests we will see lower prices starting now.

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Note the red line which is the On Balance Volume. Note that it has not gone up as much as the market did. It lagged. This shows that the Smart Money was taking profits on the rally and expect the rally to fail. I'm not that smart so I watch what the Smart Money is doing and follow them!

But we can add a related factor to the bearish situation!

At the bottom of the chart is the volume. Notice how it dried up as the market skyrocketed then spiked up a little on the weak price action yesterday. All price action must be confirmed by volume or it is suspect. So the weak volume on the rally does NOT confirm the rally so we immediately have to look for the bear to take back control of the market, which they did on Friday.

There are some bullish features to the market so we don't want to stock up on guns, ammo, canned goods, and the Bible yet. But the next leg should be to the downside. Don't panic! There are ways to make money in this market! Click on the ad in this Trade Secrets to sign up for Wall Street Winners where we are making money so far this year!

Words To Live By

"Manipulation:—Manipulation is possible in the day to day movement of the averages, and secondary reactions are subject to such an influence to a more limited degree, but the primary trend can never be manipulated." Robert Rhea

I'm veen trading for 50 years and I've seen manipulation so I know it exists. But I agree with Rhea that is can only affect the market for a very short period of time. The big moves never come as a result of manipulation. The next ten ticks could come from manipulation.

I know that you only get stopped out because of manipulation because all your trades are great! :) But it ain't so! I'm sure that one in ten thousand of your trades were stopped out due to manipulation but don't forget that you can get right back in again. No biggie!

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