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Why China Will Continue To Support Russia

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What is going to happen next?
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A long time friend of mine, who has worked in Russia and worked with Russian company, asked me the following questions:

"Will China stop supporting Russia."

I told him that I felt that China would keep their mouth shut and say nothing publicly. But, behind the scenes, they continue to cooperate with Russia and, in particular, buy Russian raw materials.

The chart above, from the Financial Times, shows four lines. The two upper lines represent the price of Brent crude oil and the oil from the United Arab Emirates.

The lower two lines show the price of oil from two locations in Russia.

Let me translate this chart into plain English:

Russia is selling oil to China at a significant discount. I don't know for a fact but I would imagine that Russian metals are being sold at similar discounts to oil. So my quick answer is that China needs those minerals and Russia is the cheapest supplier in the world right now so of course China will take advantage of that discount.

In addition, they can do the transactions without using US dollars. This avoids the sanctions and reduces the value of the US dollar. Bot of these factors are arguing for the two countries to increase trade rather than reduce it.

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But this also brings up the situation in China.

I am a major bear on China. I have an investment theme called the Twilight of China. I am bearish because:

  • Increasing authoritarianism reducing economic wealth
  • Increasing state takeover of the economy leading to more inefficiency and corruption
  • Shrinking working age population
  • One of the oldest populations on Earth taking assets away from increasing production and wealth and into caring for elderly
  • Increasing social tensions leading to riots and potentially regime change

With all these pressures on China, they will do everything they can to acquire more raw materials at a discount!

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Good trading,

Courtney Smith

OWNx.com

Words To Live By

"...by speculation. It's just like the old adage: 'What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.'" By all measures of the data, the fools had piled in." Danielle DiMartino Booth in her excellent book "Fed Up"

We are in the foolish stage now after being turbo charged by an insanely easy Fed policy then supercharged by even more insane fiscal policy by the current and last administrations. Too easy money leads to speculative excesses and we are seeing that now.

Where to get more Courtney!

Youtube: Freebee Wall Street Winners

Podcast: The Courtney Smith Show

Substack: courtneysmith.substack.com

Medium: Courtney Smith – Medium

Profile Image COURTNEY SMITH
WealthBuilder LLC
Work (702) 761-6837 | Text Message (702) 718-8588
Support@WealthBuilderLLC.com
CourtneySmith.com

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