Are these gloomy headlines telling the full story?

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Senior Analyst


Marketing Brew

Beware the gloomy headlines about U.S. GDP.

According to preliminary Bureau of Economic Analysis data released last Thursday, U.S. GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.4%.

However, this negative number belies the relative strength of the U.S. economy.

A single stat can't explain the whole story: Net exports subtracted 3.2 percentage points from GDP.

When net exports are negative, it means the U.S. is importing more than it is exporting.Indeed, imports are up, and exports are down because the U.S. economy is just a lot stronger than its international trading partners.

"What this says is DEMAND is strong as consumers and businesses are buying a lot," explained Jason Furman, the Harvard economics professor and former chair of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

As the details of the GDP report show:Personal consumption grew at a 2.7% rate.

Business investment grew at a 9.2% rate.

The fact that the U.S. economy has so much demand and is outpacing other countries doesn't necessarily support the idea that the U.S. economy is contracting.

It's important to take headlines with a grain of salt, as they might not be telling the whole picture.

There's a certain sector in the market that's going bonkers to the upside, even during roaring inflation.

And there's now a "Perfect Storm" scenario in place that could cause this whole group to go parabolic to the upside.

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