Stocks Closed Sharply Higher Ahead Of This Morning's Employment Report Image: Bigstock Stocks soared yesterday with all of the indexes in the green. And they are all poised for another weekly gain with one more trading day to go. Yesterday's ADP Employment Report, while showing another jobs gain last month with 128K new private payroll jobs, came in under expectations for 240K. But the jobs report everybody is really looking forward to is this morning's Employment Situation Report. Expectations are for 325,000 new jobs (310K in the private sector and 15K in the public), with the unemployment rate ticking down from 3.6% (already near a 50-year low), to 3.5%. In addition to the jobs report, we'll also get the Purchasing Managers' Index and the ISM Services Index. Wednesday's comments by Jamie Dimon, warning that an economic "hurricane" could be coming (maybe), spooked plenty of investors later that day. But those comments were brushed off on Thursday. For one, he essentially said maybe it'll be a big one, and maybe not. (Which means, who knows.) He also mentioned how consumers have six to nine months of spending power left (referring to the record amount of stimulus that consumers are sitting on and itching to spend), which means the so-called hurricane looks a ways out. He also mentioned inflation, interest rates, and oil prices. And we'll have to see how all those play out. While Jamie Dimon is one to listen to, he did just say earlier this year that he thinks the U.S. is headed for the best economic growth in decades, and that the "consumer balance sheet has never been in better shape." So these big announcements all have to be taken with a grain of salt – both the bullish ones and bearish ones. I'm not dismissing the possibility of problems down the road. I mean, we do have 40-year high inflation to deal with. But the ominous 'hurricane' statement instantly reminded me of the 'irrational exuberance' line from Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan, back on December 5th, 1996. From the time of that speech, the S&P gained over 105% before peaking on March 24th, 2000 (more than 3¼ years later). Will we see something similar? Both on the way up, and on the way down? We shall see. The point is, I wouldn't read too much into his hurricane comment. And I definitely wouldn't be trading on it. This week is shaping up to be a good week in the market. And it won't take much for another weekly gain. If so, that would make it two up weeks in a row. But all eyes will be on today's jobs report. And that typically can be a market mover. So here's hoping for a good one. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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