Dear Investor,
In the past few weeks, we've watched evidence accumulate suggesting that the economic narrative is shifting toward one in which growth cools from scorching levels — but not so much that the economy spirals into a recession.
The May U.S. jobs report provided more confirmation of this shift.
According to the report, U.S. employers added a healthy 390,000 jobs in May.
This was down from the 436,000 jobs added in May but still stronger than expected.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at a meager 3.6%.In summary, the U.S continues to put people back to work, which is good news for economic growth.
The pace of job growth may be cooling, but employers seem to be attracting people back into the labor force without causing wage growth to accelerate, which is good news for those looking to bring inflation down.
This is precisely the balance the Federal Reserve hopes for as it continues to tighten monetary policy in its efforts to cool inflation from very high levels.It may seem odd to be celebrating a slowdown in wage growth.
But high wage growth amid tight supply is part of the reason we have high inflation.
And wage growth isn't worth much if inflation eats away your spending power.It appears that the labor market is a little less hot than it was earlier this year, and people are picking up on it.
And the fact that this cooling has so far come without a material spike in the unemployment rate will be welcome news for the Fed as it maneuvers to bring down inflation.
That said, inflation data will be watched extremely closely in the coming months.
Because keep in mind: The Fed's ultimate goal isn't to just slow the economy. Its ultimate goal is to cool inflation. Using policy tools to slow the economy is just a means to achieve those ends.
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