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πŸ“‰ Are we nearing the bottom?

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Is the Market Nearing a Bottom?

Jody Chudley, Contributing Analyst, The Oxford Club

Jody Chudley

I spilled a lot of ink last year warning about the expensive valuation of the stock market.

In doing so, I enlisted the help of some of the sharpest investment minds of the past 50 years.

  • Oaktree's Howard Marks said that we were in an "everything bubble." Marks felt that all asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) were very expensive.
  • Charlie Munger told us that the market was "dangerously expensive." He believed that valuations last year were even more extreme than they were during the 2000 dot-com bubble.
  • Stan Druckenmiller's experience taught us a lesson when I implored readers to avoid stocks with high price-to-sales ratios at all costs. For those stocks, the data clearly showed that there was a bubble waiting to be popped.

And it has.

My valuation warnings and the wise words of these great investors have proven to be accurate.

2022 has been brutal for equity investors.

The S&P 500 saw its worst first half of a year in more than 50 years.

Chart: The S&P 500's Worst First Half of the Year in More Than Five Decades
 

Disturbingly, though, another great modern investor doesn't think that the market is anywhere close to a bottom...

When Will We Hit Bottom?

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