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When the goalposts keep moving, it's easy to get confused... First, the Federal Reserve told us that inflation would be "transitory."

The Recession Goalposts Moved Once Again By Karina Kovalcik, senior quantitative analyst, Chaikin Analytics When the goalposts keep moving, it's easy to get confused...   First, the Federal Reserve told us that inflation would be "transitory." Next, the Fed started saying that inflation really wasn't as bad as the government's own official data showed. It tried to tell us other metrics showed something different. And now, the federal government is essentially telling us, "Just because it meets the historically accepted definition of a recession, that doesn't mean it's actually a recession." Seriously. The White House published a blog post last week that said...   While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real [gross domestic product ("GDP")] constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. In other words, government bureaucrats moved the goalposts again. But here's what I'm wondering... Two decades from now, when economics majors look at charts of previous recessions, will there be an asterisk next to this recession saying that it wasn't really one? It just sounds ridiculous. And the more important point today boils down to one question... Will the big money buy the government's narrative or will it call baloney? After all, wherever the "smart money" goes, the rest of the market will follow... Recommended Links: Huge Recession Loophole (See These Charts) Amid today's market turmoil, THIS is one of the biggest and most bullish opportunities... It's a red-hot sector with almost unlimited pricing power and a history of outperforming in recessions. It's also the sector where our good friend Dr. David Eifrig spent half his professional life. In other words, he's extremely qualified to spot world-class opportunities today. Take a look at the evidence here. READER: How I Saved My Retirement and Stopped Worrying About Money Forever I never worry about money problems or my retirement income, no matter what happens with politics or the markets. I've got legal obligations on my money that stocks can only dream of. My advice? Take this ONE simple step today. Institutional investors (the so-called smart money) execute 85% to 90% of all the trades in U.S. stocks. That's why our Chaikin Money Flow indicator is so powerful. It uses technical analysis to try to ferret out what smart money is doing at any given time.  So far this year, we've seen significant outflows in many different types of stocks...  The smart money ran away from tech companies like Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Netflix (NFLX) through the first half of 2022. And it did the same with stalwart companies like Walmart (WMT), CVS Health (CVS), and Home Depot (HD). Despite that, the mainstream media is buying the new position of the goalposts from the federal government. And together, they're firmly in denial about our economy. The media is now flooded with the narrative of "it's not as bad as it looks." But just because the media is painting a rosy outlook doesn't mean you should position your portfolio that way. A lot of the data shows the picture isn't as rosy as it seems. We can't let the changing goalposts distract us. Just look at what the data actually shows... Inflation is at a 40-year high with no indication of letting up soon. Preliminary data shows that U.S. GDP has declined for two straight quarters. That checks the box for an official recession. And even though companies have reported better-than-expected earnings lately, they're still poor. The data paints a much bleaker picture than the government and the media. But it's also not the end of the world. Don't panic. Instead, prepare for what comes next... Make sure you aren't overexposed to any one sector or position. Be on the defensive side for now. And keep some cash on hand for any buying opportunities that pop up. Remember, don't get caught in the government's narrative that everything is OK today. When it comes to the White House, the Fed, and the media... the recession goalposts have legs. They've taken quite the walk over the past month. Don't let that fool you. Good investing, Karina Kovalcik   Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors     # Hld:     Bullish     Neutral     Bearish Dow 30 +1.00% 5 17 8 S&P 500 +1.25% 103 279 117 Nasdaq +0.98% 26 43 30 Small Caps +1.35% 457 969 407 Bonds +0.80% Real Estate +3.68% 3 20 8 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks are somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are all bearish. *  *  *  * Top Movers Gainers CEG +16.32% ETSY +9.86% AES +9.48% ROL +9.08% EQIX +9.06% Losers SWK -16.07% CINF -13.91% BAX -10.93% CMCSA -9.13% CHTR -8.48% *  *  *  * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close GWW, XOM CHD, ES, MTD ABBV, AON, CBOE, CL, LYB, WY CVX, HIG, PG, PSX CHTR, NWL No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Q2 $-0.20 Missed by $-0.32 AMT American Tower Corporation Q2 $1.95 Beat by $0.99 CPT Camden Property Trust Q2 $0.22 Missed by $-0.33 INTC Intel Corporation Q2 $0.29 Missed by $-0.41 ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q2 $-2.03 Missed by $-0.69 *  *  *  * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Utilities +7.05% Real Estate +5.32% Energy +4.67% Industrials +3.27% Staples +3.23% Information Technology +2.08% Materials +1.98% Health Care +1.89% Financial +0.85% Discretionary +0.71% Communication -2.86% *  *  *  * Industry Focus Insurance Services 5 43 3 Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.19%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #6 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week. Top Stocks RGA Reinsurance Group of KNSL Kinsale Capital Grou GL Globe Life Inc. *  *  *  * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here. You're receiving this e-mail at diansastroxz.forex@blogger.com. 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