| Prior to the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009, the market started dropping, and when the market bottomed out in March 2009, things were still pretty rough. There was still speculation that the U.S. economy would go over a cliff. Unemployment was at 8.5% (and it kept rising until November 2009). But the market was telling us that the much-feared and anticipated economic Armageddon was not going to happen. You can see from this chart going back to 1928 that the market has almost always started heading lower before recessions (shown as gray bars) and it almost always bottoms while recessions are still happening. The chart is an excellent indicator for what will occur six to 12 months out. What does that mean today? If we see the market continue to bounce and go on to make new highs, it's safe to say the recession is over and that it was a very mild one at that. If markets turn lower in the near future, we may be in for more difficult times. Don't listen to the media and rely on its experts to try to figure out whether we're in a recession and, if so, how bad it could get. Most media sources have biases - some very strong. On the other hand, the market is neutral. It doesn't care whether you're a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian or Communist, for that matter. (Though, if you're a Communist, you're probably not reading this or particularly interested in investing - after all, the government will "take care of you.") The market is, and long has been, an excellent barometer for where our economy is headed six to 12 months into the future. Keep an eye on it, and you'll know whether the recession is about to get hairy or whether we've already pulled out of it. Good investing, Marc | 
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