The S&P 500 Index is quietly moving higher once again... On October 12, the broad market index closed at about 3,577. That was its lowest point since late 2020.
The Market Is Running on 'Hopium'
By Karina Kovalcik, senior quantitative analyst, Chaikin Analytics
The S&P 500 Index is quietly moving higher once again...
On October 12, the broad market index closed at about 3,577. That was its lowest point since late 2020. But in the two-plus weeks since then, it's up roughly 9%.
Unfortunately for investors... not much has changed at the macro level.
Russia is still at war with Ukraine. China is still adamant that it owns Taiwan. And North Korea is still testing its missiles. And on an economic front, inflation is still high.
Here in the U.S., that last point means more Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are likely...
CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently projects a nearly 90% chance that the central bank will raise its benchmark rate 75 basis points at this week's meeting.
At the same time, consumer confidence in the U.S. is falling. The latest data from the Conference Board showed that this metric just hit its lowest level in three months.
So if nothing has changed... why is the stock market up roughly 9% recently?
Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin got straight to the point when I caught up with him last week. As he explained to me...
Investors have an addiction to "hopium." And in turn, so does the market.
In short, investors are getting sick of selling. They're tired of bad news. They're searching for any form of hope they can get.
What happens in the coming weeks could make or absolutely break your retirement. That's what history has shown when stocks are falling, inflation is rising, the Fed's raising rates, and economic activity is slowing. But Dan Ferris just stepped forward with an insanely simple solution to protect your wealth. Until midnight tonight, click here for details.
After four decades of preparation... Dr. David Eifrig stepped forward with the most important announcement of his life. If you've EVER followed his research... or simply don't want to miss what Doc calls the "the biggest opportunity I've ever seen... in any market... any asset... anywhere" – you need to see what he's revealed immediately. Full details here.
The latest earnings season kicked off with a bang earlier this month.
The big banks reported first. And in general, their earnings weren't bad. In fact, as of last Monday, 65% of financial companies that reported earnings beat their earnings estimates.
The trend was similar across several market sectors. Many companies beat expectations.
As my dad likes to say... "New information calls for new decisions."
Investors really took this saying to heart over the past two-plus weeks. Earnings season is when the newest information comes to light for the most companies...
Four times a year, companies report what happened over the previous three months. Plus, they issue guidance on what they expect to happen over the next three months (or more).
No other time of year comes with as much information as earnings season.
But here's the thing...
As of last Monday, only 20% of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings in this cycle. Another 33% reported last week. And look where hopium is leading us now...
On Wednesday, Meta Platforms (META) reported a major miss. And as a result, its stock fell nearly 25% on Thursday... in one day. The stock is now down a staggering 71% this year.
Then, Amazon (AMZN) reported earnings after the markets closed on Thursday. And its report spooked investors, too. The company's stock fell around 7% on Friday.
With just those two companies, that's about $158 billion in market value gone in two days.
To put it simply, it's going to take a lot more than hope to turn around wipeouts like that. The major macro headwinds will need to subside.
But today, those headwinds are still roaring.
So as the market comes down off its "hopium" high, we'll likely see significant volatility in the next couple of weeks. Be prepared to weather the next leg of this market storm.
Good investing,
Karina Kovalcik
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+2.51%
11
14
5
S&P 500
+2.35%
146
251
99
Nasdaq
+3.06%
25
54
21
Small Caps
+2.27%
569
879
422
Bonds
-0.69%
Information Technology
+4.35%
22
45
8
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks have turned somewhat Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
DXCM
+19.38%
GILD
+12.92%
INTC
+10.66%
VRSN
+9.46%
VRTX
+9.03%
Losers
DVA
-27.09%
EW
-17.88%
BIO
-7.98%
AMZN
-6.80%
RMD
-5.84%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
ON
AFL, ANET, AWK
GPN, HWM
CINF, HOLX, L, WMB
PEG
NXPI, SBAC, VNO
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
Q3
$1.96
Missed by $-0.99
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation
Q3
$4.45
Beat by $0.65
CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Q3
$0.76
Beat by $0.11
GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Q3
$8.27
Beat by $1.02
CVX Chevron Corporation
Q3
$5.56
Beat by $0.64
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Industrials
+6.69%
Utilities
+6.48%
Financial
+6.21%
Real Estate
+6.20%
Staples
+6.18%
Health Care
+4.99%
Information Technology
+4.21%
Materials
+3.36%
Energy
+2.67%
Discretionary
+1.80%
Communication
-2.23%
* * * *
Industry Focus
NYSE Technology Services
4
24
7
Over the past 6 months, the NYSE Technology subsector (XNTK) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -10.34%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #16 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 2 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
SNAP
Snap Inc.
UBER
Uber Technologies, I
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
* * * *
You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here.
You're receiving this e-mail at diansastroxz.forex@blogger.com.
For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice.
Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
Post a Comment
Post a Comment