| We're entering what is traditionally my favorite time of the year. That's not because I love fall or a cornucopia of pumpkin spice-flavored goodies. Or because I'm a fan of winter. (In fact, I hate all of those things.) But the reason I love this time of the year is it's the busiest season for trend traders like me. And it's rewarded me and my subscribers time and time again with some of the largest gains of my career. Put aside your fears of a bear market. Put aside your fears that there's a potential recession lurking over the horizon. Instead, focus on what's about to unfold over the next few weeks... Yes, there are midterm elections, important inflation data releases and third quarter earnings underway. But looming over all of this is the holiday shopping season. The official kickoff is only a couple of weeks away. And despite Amazon's (Nasdaq: AMZN) warning that it was going to see some of its worst growth ever, Christmas isn't canceled. Far from it... This year, e-commerce sales on Cyber Monday and Black Friday are expected to be around $12 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Total U.S. holiday spending is forecast to top $1.3 trillion this year. That's an increase over 2021's. And that's despite the fact that the world is full of fears. The Holiday Spending Trend The success of seasonal trading is built on optimizing time and effort. I've always stressed that investors should hold shares of certain companies only during each company's best periods of the year. That way, they get the most bang for their buck while reducing their overall exposure to black swan events or other risks. The strategy I use isn't random. And the ideas behind it aren't anomalies. Data shows that many companies enjoy fantastic stretches during the same time year after year. And more often than not, that relates back to the company's underlying business, revenue and earnings. When I was growing up, my dad told me, "Companies really only make money three to six months out of the year. The rest of the time, they're just trying to break even." For many consumer-dependent companies, we're heading into those months. In fact, the fourth quarter alone can account for as much as 40% of a retailer's annual revenue. |
Post a Comment
Post a Comment