Disney's (DIS) latest thriller isn't playing in theaters... Rather, it's happening in the corporate suites.
Be Careful With This Media Giant... for Now
By Marc Gerstein, director of research, Chaikin Analytics
Disney's (DIS) latest thriller isn't playing in theaters...
Rather, it's happening in the corporate suites. And two guys named Bob are the stars...
Bob Iger served as Disney's CEO from 2005 until his contract expired in 2020.
Before stepping down, Iger hand-picked Bob Chapek as his replacement. And Iger stayed on as the company's executive chairman through his retirement at the end of 2021.
The two men endured a rocky relationship throughout Chapek's tenure as CEO...
Iger and Chapek collided on business strategies and leadership approaches, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. And as they butted heads, Disney's profits tanked...
Its normalized operating earnings per share peaked at $7.08 in the fiscal year that ended in September 2018. They fell to $5.77 in 2019 and to $2.02 in the pandemic-plagued 2020.
The drop into 2020 is understandable. After all, many companies suffered that year.
However, unlike most of these companies, Disney didn't come roaring back as society reopened. The company's normalized operating earnings per share remained depressed. They came in at $2.33 in 2021 and $3.53 in the year that ended in September.
And importantly, analysts don't expect Disney's earnings to surpass the old peak until 2026.
The company's board of directors finally had enough. They dismissed Chapek and reinstated Iger as CEO this past November. And they're giving him two years to turn things around.
But as I'll explain today, the drama around this media giant is getting more complicated. A new power struggle is developing. And soon, it could change the company's outlook...
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Make no mistake, Disney is a world-class entertainment-content creator. But in today's competitive environment... creative projects don't automatically translate into profits.
Disney's big TV networks include ABC, ESPN, National Geographic, and FX. And they've been suffering for a while. That's because a lot of folks have "cut the cord" on cable.
So Disney has leveraged its strong brand to gain customers in the "streaming" space...
When Disney+ launched in November 2019, it attracted 10 million subscribers on the first day alone. And by this past October, it had reached 164.2 million global subscribers.
But the streaming landscape is spectacularly competitive...
Even though Disney+ boasts a powerful child-oriented brand and a decadeslong movie library, it hasn't been able to keep up with rivals like Netflix (NFLX). In fact, Disney's streaming division reported a roughly $1.5 billion loss in the fourth quarter of last year.
That poor performance caught the eye of activist investor Nelson Peltz...
Through his company Trian Fund Management, Peltz is pushing to "reinvigorat[e] the Disney 'flywheel.'" And he wants to "ensur[e] customers get real value across all business lines."
Iger and Peltz will likely keep jockeying for position in the months ahead.
Fortunately, we don't need to take sides. We can simply follow the Power Gauge...
Regular PowerFeed readers are familiar with our one-of-a-kind system. It evaluates more than 5,000 stocks using 20 different factors in categories like Financials, Earnings, Experts, and Technicals. And ultimately, it helps us figure out the health of every stock at any time.
Today, Disney ranks as "neutral" overall. That makes sense... With all the drama at the company right now, it's good to be careful as investors.
And frankly, Disney's performance over the past year has been abysmal. The stock is down roughly 20%. That's significantly worse than the broader market. Take a look...
But the thing is... we now have a reason to be optimistic about Disney's future.
Look at the Chaikin Money Flow indicator in the lower panel of the chart...
This indicator tracks the movement of the so-called "smart money." These institutional investors – such as pension funds, mutual funds, and hedge funds – are right more than they're wrong. So in most cases, it's good to invest in a stock alongside them.
Notice the strong recent inflows (marked in green) after months of outflows (marked in red). If that trend continues, it could soon lead Disney to a "bullish" Power Gauge rating.
In the latest part of this Disney thriller, we don't need to root for Peltz. And we don't need to side with Iger, either. We just need to follow the signals right in front of us...
Right now, the Power Gauge is "neutral" on Disney. So we'll stay cautious.
But we'll keep our eyes on the smart money. If these investors keep buying, we'll consider following suit.
Good investing,
Marc Gerstein
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.07%
11
17
2
S&P 500
+0.05%
147
275
78
Nasdaq
-0.22%
34
48
19
Small Caps
+0.28%
565
1018
308
Bonds
+0.24%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are Bullish.. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Communication
+5.54%
Information Technology
+3.56%
Discretionary
+2.70%
Financial
+2.41%
Energy
+1.96%
Materials
+1.82%
Real Estate
+1.49%
Staples
+0.80%
Industrials
+0.49%
Health Care
+0.47%
Utilities
-1.24%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Services
2
46
17
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Services subsector (XHS) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -5.67%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #21 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
RCM
R1 RCM Inc.
BKD
Brookdale Senior Liv
GH
Guardant Health, Inc
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
MKTX
+10.24%
COF
+8.99%
WBD
+8.60%
T
+6.58%
NWSA
+5.68%
Losers
NEE
-8.71%
NDAQ
-5.85%
ISRG
-5.50%
NSC
-5.04%
ADP
-4.66%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
ALK, NUE, ROK, VLO
INTC, RMD
ADM, CMCSA, LUV, MA, MMC, NOC, SHW, TROW, TSCO
AJG, EMN, KLAC, LHX, RHI, V, WRB, WY
XEL
MKC
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
BA The Boeing Company
Q4
$-1.75
Missed by $-1.95
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Q4
$-0.19
Missed by $-0.10
USB U.S. Bancorp
Q4
$0.57
Missed by $-0.57
PGR The Progressive Corporation
Q4
$0.53
Missed by $-0.39
TER Teradyne, Inc.
Q4
$0.92
Beat by $0.17
* * * *
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