For months, I've stuck to the same investing playbook... Bear markets typically end with panic and capitulation.
Stocks Just Triggered a Critical 'Buy Soon' Signal
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
For months, I've stuck to the same investing playbook...
Bear markets typically end with panic and capitulation. And importantly, as I've noted in the past, the pain often doesn't stop until after the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.
This trend goes back many decades. It's why I've remained cautious in recent months. And it's why we've continued to watch the Fed – and other key indicators – for any clues.
I've expected that an "earnings recession" this year would result in another leg down in this bear market. So as a result, I've urged folks to remain vigilant heading into 2023.
Now, I still believe an earnings recession could occur. Remember, that's two straight quarters of zero earnings growth in the S&P 500 Index. And it's a real possibility this year.
With that in mind, you might be wondering why I'm turning "bullish" today...
After all, the Fed keeps raising interest rates. And again, that was a big part of our "bearish" playbook in recent months.
Well, it all comes down to a guiding principle for making money in the market. It's something simple that I learned from my friend, Marty Zweig, many years ago...
Watch the Fed and listen to the market.
You see, despite the Fed's insistence that rates will stay higher for longer, the market is saying something else. As I'll explain today, one key indicator is telling us to be bullish...
Following his stunningly accurate "Melt Up" prediction, former hedge-fund manager Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is breaking his silence with what he says is the biggest moneymaking opportunity of the next 20 years. It all centers around a rare event that could deliver multiple 1,000%-plus winners... or cripple your wealth for decades to come if you're not prepared. Click here for full details.
To ring in the new year, Dr. David Eifrig is reopening his original briefing on his No. 1 biggest discovery in 15 years (and more than four decades in the markets). He has already shown readers big double-digit gains since last July... even while the broader markets suffered. But see why 2023 could be the best year yet for this strategy, right here.
It comes down to market "breadth"...
You see, the number of advancing stocks versus declining stocks in the New York Stock Exchange recently triggered a "thrust" signal. And notably... this shift leads us to believe that the bear market of 2022 is just about over.
The following chart is based on data from InvesTech Research. It shows all the times since 1950 that the ratio of the 10-day total of advancing stocks divided by the 10-day total of declining stocks exceeded 2.
In other words, it shows us the periods when advancing stocks far outweighed declining ones throughout history. It's a key indicator of market breadth.
As you can see, this breadth-thrust signal has only triggered 19 times over the past 73 years. And importantly, every time... it was an incredibly bullish setup for stocks.
Take a look...
Now, I'm not saying everything will be smooth sailing for investors from here.
The markets will likely remain volatile in the months ahead. For example, in the previous 18 instances, pullbacks of 3% to 8% followed the initial breadth-thrust signal.
But as we've learned today, the tides are now turning...
The market just flashed a critical "buy soon" signal. This signal has only happened 18 other times dating back to 1950. And it's an encouraging sign for stocks moving forward.
Even better, another piece of data shows that stocks could be headed for double-digit gains in 2023 after falling nearly 20% last year. I'll explain that data in detail tomorrow.
This is a bullish setup. Ultimately, stocks could surge to a new all-time high.
For now, we should expect a strong first half of 2023 followed by choppier price action.
The volatility likely isn't over yet. But a new bull phase could be here.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.75%
12
15
3
S&P 500
+1.17%
148
275
77
Nasdaq
+2.22%
36
49
16
Small Caps
+1.26%
555
1021
316
Bonds
-0.47%
Information Technology
+2.28%
29
41
6
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are Bullish.. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Communication
+3.21%
Information Technology
+2.94%
Discretionary
+1.04%
Energy
+0.67%
Real Estate
-0.58%
Health Care
-0.79%
Materials
-0.88%
Financial
-1.00%
Industrials
-2.33%
Staples
-2.53%
Utilities
-2.92%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Dow Jones REIT Services
3
65
44
Over the past 6 months, the Dow Jones REIT subsector (RWR) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -5.12%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #21 of 21 subsectors.
Indicative Stocks
SLG
SL Green Realty Corp
NTST
NETSTREIT Corp.
ESS
Essex Property Trust
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
AMD
+9.22%
WDC
+8.66%
TSLA
+7.74%
MPWR
+7.72%
NVDA
+7.59%
Losers
XYL
-7.95%
SBAC
-3.55%
SLB
-2.60%
AMT
-2.59%
FE
-2.51%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
DHI, DHR, HAL, MMM, PCAR, TRV
APH, FFIV
CHD, IVZ, JNJ, LMT
COF, ISRG, MSFT
RTX, UNP, VZ
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
SYF Synchrony Financial
Q4
$1.26
Beat by $0.14
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc.
Q4
$0.50
Beat by $0.04
BKR Baker Hughes Company
Q4
$0.38
Missed by $-0.02
* * * *
You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here.
You're receiving this e-mail at diansastroxz.forex@blogger.com.
For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice.
Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
Post a Comment
Post a Comment