Hey Trader, There's a lot of speculation among so called "market experts" about the direction the market will go this year… The bulls, of course, say we're due for a stock market recovery… The bears, as always, are hoping for all doom and gloom… It's like a giant game of virtual tug of war. Whoever is stronger wins the day, week, month, or year. But this game is never a blowout win for either team… There's always some give and take… push and pull… no matter the market conditions or global economy. And I think 2023 will be exactly that. I call it chop… the up and down movement of the market. Much like the chop on the water. Sometimes the chop is subtle, small waves of water bobbing up and down so gently you may not even notice if you don't look close enough. Other times, like during a storm, the chop is massive. Tidal waves and gale force winds that could cause nausea in even the most seasoned of sailors. Now, so far this year, the chop hasn't been terrible… The S&P is steadily rising, up 7% since the start of the year. And the NASDAQ is climbing even more gradually, up 14%. But even though these are trending up, there are a few dips in the charts themselves, and I think it is only a matter of time until we see a storm coming over the horizon. It won't be anything we can't navigate, that's for sure. Being a professional trader, I've seen countless storms in the market, and not only survived all of them, but even thrived in them. So, while I do think this market could be all chop, I'm not running to secure the lifeboat anytime soon. Because it's possible that the market in 2023 does not take out the historical highs or the lows. Therefore, I'll be waiting in the Trade Room, keeping a sharp eye on unusual options activity like I always do, and trusting my gut when it comes to following signals. That approach has never let me down before, and I don't think it's going to now. General Thoughts On The Market On an analytical note, I will say that I like how experts have been talking about a coming recession for months… Not because it means negative things for the economy, but because talks of a recession are likely to bring weakness to the market as a whole. And with that weakness, I guarantee I'll be able to get long on stocks that have no business being so low. So, while fear of a recession bleeds into the minds of traders everywhere, I'll be looking to take advantage of cheap trades for an absolute bargain of a deal. One thing I don't like, however, is that the VIX is under 20, currently sitting at 19.75. For those that don't know, VIX ticker is the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's (or CBOE) Volatility Index. It's also known as the "fear gauge" as it essentially measures the market's expected volatility. The record highs of the VIX were during the crash in 2008, where it hit 70, and at the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March of 2020, where it hit 66. Don't get me wrong, nobody wants to see volatility that high… But I also want to see at least a little fear in the market. Fear breeds opportunity for traders like me. And without it, the market becomes stagnant, like a smelly pond that begins to grow algae. Like I said before, I prefer sailing on a bit of choppy water, allowing me to take advantage of dips and swells like only I can. And if you stick with me, you'll have no fear of a choppy market… In fact, you might not even want a life vest. Talk to you again soon. Regards, Andrew Keene
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