-->

$2K SAJ: Q1 trial #1 summary [2023]

Post a Comment

Good morning,


The $2,000 Small Account Journey probability based strategy is a fantastic way to try and grow a small account. 


A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.


  1. Anything can happen.

  2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

  5. Every moment in the market is unique.


Pg. 121 Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas


I'm going to cut right to the chase. 


If Mark Douglas were writing up the evaluation of my Q1 trial #1 he'd point out that I violated guideline 6.


Guideline 6

Stop loss strategy: defined by sold strike into any market close.


Had I honored guideline 6, stop loss strategy, the Q1 trial #1 would still be going and I'd be doing something else with my Saturday afternoon, instead of writing this.


Thinking Like a Trader


I am a consistent winner because:


  1. I objectively identify my edges.

  2. I predefine the risk of every trade.

  3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.

  4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

  5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

  6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

  7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.


Pg. 185 Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas


I got into the NFLX trade on 2-22. NFLX closed that day at $334.88. 


On 2-23 the WSJ article dropped the stock and it closed at $323.65. Clearly below my -$330 sold strike, I had all the time in the world that day to take a very small, manageable loss. 


Then again on 2-27, when NFLX bounced to $330, I was basically even on the trade. Another opportunity to honor guideline 6. 


In fact, from 2-23 - 3/1 I had not 2, 3, 4, BUT 5 opportunities to honor guideline 6 and get out with a small, manageable loss.


Q1 trial #1 summary:


  • Win streak → 9 across 2-months

  • $ growth → $2,000 - $8,377

  • % growth → 319%

  • Mistake → failed to honor stop loss

  • End result → $0

  • Recommendation → reread pages 189 - 201 Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas


Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Nothing is guaranteed.


Remember, a good trading strategy or "edge" is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.


This is the best strategy I know to try and grow a small account. 


But it's so much more than that. 


What the exercise here demonstrates with absolute certainty is how easy it is to violate guidelines and therefore render the "edge" ineffective. 


A weakness of mine has been exposed. With this in mind, I'll need to continually monitor my susceptibility for making the error again.


I hope you understand the true value of this Small Account Journey isn't in just turning $2,000 into a huge number, though that is my goal. 


The true value is in identifying my weaknesses, addressing them honestly, so I'm less likely to make the same mistakes with larger sums of money.  


Q1 trial #2 starts Monday February 6, 2023

$2,000 Small Account Journey balance: $2,000

Status: cash


Subscribe


There are 4 Small Account Journeys in 2023. Each starting on the first day of the new quarter. 


Q2 $2,000 SAJ starts April 1

Q3 $2,000 SAJ starts July 1 

Q4 $2,000 SAJ starts October 1 


If Q1 SAJ is still going on April 1, when Q2 starts, any new trade made will be the same for both balances so the only difference will be the amount of contracts e.g. 10 contracts allocated to Q2 balance and 30 allocated to Q1 balance. But tracked in journals separately. All Journeys are traded out of my bigger TD account.


I will run each $2,000 balance until it goes to $0 or gets too big that I'm uncomfortable risking the full amount. 


$2,000 JOURNEY guidelines:


  1. Tickers: best tech co's in world, earnings winners, strong guidance so AAPL, NFLX, TSLA, META, NVDA

  2. Order type: put credit spread (neutral to bullish i.e. good co's tend to go up)

  3. Target entry: defined by technical analysis (sell below big support to boost odds)

  4. Entry (credit) goal: 30% of the spread width i.e. $10 wide = $3, $5 wide = $1.50 etc…

  5. Exit (debit) goal: 50% of the credit

  6. Stop loss strategy: defined by sold strike into any market close

  7. Allocation: 100%, roll balance into next trade

  8. Expiry: 5-7 days from expiration (fastest rate of option decay)

  9. Hold time: 3.8 days on average

  10. Frequency: 1.13 trades / week on average


Jason Bond



RagingBull, LLC
62 Calef Hwy. #233, Lee, NH 03861

Manage your email subscriptions.

DISCLAIMER: To more fully understand any Ragingbull.com, LLC ("RagingBull") subscription, website, application or other service ("Services"), please review our full disclaimer located at https://ragingbull.com/disclaimer.

FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. AnyRagingBull Service offered is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT beconstrued as a securities-related offer or solicitation, or be relied upon as personalizedinvestment advice. RagingBull strongly recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.

RESULTS PRESENTED NOT TYPICAL OR VERIFIED. RagingBull Services may contain information regarding the historical trading performance of RagingBull owners or employees, and/or testimonials of non-employees depicting profitability that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons voluntarily providing the testimonial. However, subscribers' trading results have NOT been tracked or verified and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and the results presented in this communication are NOT TYPICAL. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, market dynamics and the amount of capital deployed. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some, all, or possibly more than your original investment.

RAGINGBULL IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Neither RagingBull nor any of its owners or employees is registered as a securities broker-dealer, broker, investment advisor(IA), or IA representative with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securitiesregulatory authority, or any self-regulatory organization.

WE MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED. RagingBull has not been paid directly or indirectly by the issuer of any security mentioned in the Services. However, Ragingbull.com, LLC, its owners, and itsemployees may purchase, sell, or hold long or short positions in securities of the companies mentioned inthis communication.

If you have a current active subscription with Jason Bond Picks you will need to contact us here if you want to cancel your subscription. Opting out of emails does not remove you from your service at JasonBondPicks.com.

In the event that any suit or action is instituted as a result of doing business with RagingBull.com, LLC and/or its affiliates or if any suit or action is necessary to enforce or interpret these Terms of Service, RagingBull.com, LLC shall be entitled to recover attorneys' fees, costs and disbursements in addition to any other relief to which it may be entitled.

Related Posts

There is no other posts in this category.

Post a Comment

Subscribe Our Newsletter