I spent decades of my life building proprietary systems for Wall Street's elite... It took countless hours to squeeze everything I possibly could out of the financial data. But all the hard work paid off...
The S&P 500 Is Back on the Path to New Highs
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
I spent decades of my life building proprietary systems for Wall Street's elite...
It took countless hours to squeeze everything I possibly could out of the financial data. But all the hard work paid off...
I was able to take an early retirement in the early 2000s. And I planned to spend my days relaxing and playing tennis in Connecticut.
The 2008 financial crisis wrecked my wife Sandy's retirement nest egg. And it brought me out of my own retirement...
I wanted to help everyday investors like Sandy with the best set of quantitative tools on the market. And in 2011, the Power Gauge was born.
Today, our one-of-a-kind system helps thousands upon thousands of everyday investors. And my team and I still spend hours testing, prodding, and twisting to get the most out of the latest available data.
But that doesn't mean I'm against making things as easy as possible...
Simple indicators are powerful.
And the granddaddy of simplicity is flashing a major turning point in the S&P 500 Index today.
In fact, this indicator triggers before every long-term "bullish" run in stocks. It's guaranteed to happen based on the math and how the market works.
As this indicator happens again, it unlocks the potential for new highs in the S&P 500...
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Folks, we're looking at the S&P 500's 200-day moving average ("DMA") today.
When it comes to financial indicators, the 200-DMA is about as straightforward as it gets. And importantly, it helps people answer one of the most important investing questions...
Is the price action of the asset I'm looking at trending up or trending down?
It's easiest to see what I mean on a daily chart of the S&P 500. Take a look...
This chart covers the past four years. You can see the COVID-19 crash in early 2020, as well as the ensuing recovery. And the blue line tracks the S&P 500's 200-DMA over that span.
The indicator's name explains how it works. And as I said, it's as straightforward as it gets...
Each point on the blue line represents the S&P 500's average price over the past 200 trading days.
This is an incredibly powerful indicator. It allows us to compare the current price of the index with how it has performed in the recent past.
Now, the number 200 isn't magical or anything. It just represents about a year's worth of data. And that makes it a "long-term average" of the S&P 500.
The important part is that the 200-DMA allows us to see a smoothed-out version of the S&P 500's trend. And that's where this indicator gets interesting...
You see, after the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the S&P 500 soared. And as it did, you can see that the 200-DMA pointed up and eventually soared alongside the market.
In other words, the S&P 500's long-term trend had serious upward momentum.
Notice that the S&P 500 is once again above its 200-DMA. What's more, after the long-term trend flattened and turned lower throughout 2022... it's starting to point up again.
Remember, the 200-DMA represents the index's long-term average. So even a small directional change means a major shift is happening.
That's the case today. It might seem simple. But that's the point...
For the first time since 2022, the S&P 500's long-term trend is up. And this "bullish" signal occurs before every long-term run higher for stocks.
In the end, the S&P 500 is on the path to new highs once again.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.79%
5
22
3
S&P 500
-0.71%
109
297
93
Nasdaq
-0.51%
48
41
11
Small Caps
-1.06%
440
928
510
Bonds
-0.50%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bearish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+2.61%
Communication
+0.45%
Information Technology
-0.05%
Discretionary
-0.89%
Utilities
-1.42%
Health Care
-1.46%
Financial
-2.00%
Industrials
-2.02%
Materials
-2.36%
Staples
-3.28%
Real Estate
-3.53%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Equipment Services
28
45
5
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Equipment subsector (XHE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +2.22%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #6 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
ATEC
Alphatec Holdings, I
LNTH
Lantheus Holdings, I
FIGS
FIGS, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
ILMN
+4.05%
NFLX
+2.49%
GLW
+2.47%
VLO
+2.04%
EQT
+1.92%
Losers
ADI
-7.83%
INTU
-7.53%
A
-5.95%
MCHP
-5.15%
BXP
-4.93%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
ADSK
BBY, DLTR
COST, ULTA
RL
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
SNOW Snowflake Inc.
Q1
$0.14
Beat by $0.09
SPLK Splunk Inc.
Q1
$2.04
Beat by $0.89
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation
Q1
$1.09
Beat by $0.17
ADI Analog Devices, Inc.
Q2
$2.83
Beat by $0.07
* * * *
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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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