Apple's Headset — A Stock Price Catalyst or a $3,500 Tech Toy?
The unveiling of a new “mixed-reality” headset from Apple Inc. (AAPL) is more than just a news blurb — it could be a “make-or-break” moment for the iconic tech company.
Because according to data from our friends at LikeFolio, demand for Apple's current roster of products is slipping…
You can see the slide in Purchase Intent (PI) mentions (how many people have bought or are talking about buying a product or service) on a year-over-year (YoY) basis in the chart below, with Mac mentions losing 36%, iPad mentions losing 32%, and mentions for AirPods falling 29%:
Even the iPhone is losing some steam, with mentions sliding by 28%.
Apple needs something new to capture consumers' imaginations again and cause that same buzz that previously had people waiting in line for 110 hours to grab an iPhone.
To get the answer, I turned to Jason Bodner, the inventor of the Quantum Edge system.
“As Apple got bigger and bigger and bigger, the question was always what super cool innovation the company could come up with that would move the sales needle of a $3 trillion behemoth,” Jason said.
He also noted that the headset will be the first new major product from Apple since the company launched its smartwatch nearly nine years ago.
Users will be able to control the headset using their hands, eyes, and voice. It can switch from computer mode to augmented reality (AR) to virtual reality (VR) to just plain reality, and it will be available early next year for around $3,500.
So, will this move the needle?
“Honestly, I'm not sure,” Jason said.
But he pointed out a key insight in that Apple has a history of making us realize we need something we never thought we needed before.
And going beyond that…
He was able to run AAPL through his Quantum Edge system to see what kind of investing strategies to consider.
Putting AAPL Under the Quantum Edge Microscope
Here's what Jason found:
Quantum Score: 77.6. Excellent. Right in the target “buy” zone.
Fundamental Score: 66.7. Very good. But not blow-the-roof-off outstanding. One- and three-year sales growth is “okay” — but not great. That's not surprising for a company of Apple's size — especially in the inflation-ridden environment of the last year.
Earnings growth is expected to accelerate over the coming three years. Profit margins are good. And valuations are a little rich after the stock's 40% climb here in 2023.
Technical Score: 85.3. Very strong, which is also not surprising after the big run. Shares recently hit a new 52-week high. That means they were trading above their key moving averages and internal technical measures also show strength.
Then there's Big Money…
Institutions account for 70% to 90% of daily volume and an influx of Big Money can move stock prices.
Institutions own 60% of shares, and his system has picked up 12 “buy” signals (unusually heavy buying) in the last 90 days:
Jason says that Apple pretty well checks all of his Quantum Edge boxes… very good fundamentals, exceptionally strong technicals, and Big Money is flowing in.
He said when you put everything together, it gives AAPL stock a 70% chance of rising from current prices, which equals the overall success rate of his system.
But the question of course is… How much more does it rise?
Jason warns that the company's massive market value, huge top line, and recent surge might limit the upside a bit.
But he also says it is hard to find a whole bunch wrong with Apple right now.
Bottom line: Jason says there are multiple ways to make money off companies riding gigantic megatrends. In this case, he thinks Apple and smaller companies riding the new virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) trend could be poised to keep moving higher. If you would like to learn more about Jason, his system, and how you can put his insight to work for you, more information is available here.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
Post a Comment
Post a Comment