Stocks End Mixed, Fed Raises Rates As Expected, Dow Extends Winning Streak Image: Bigstock Stocks closed mixed yesterday after the Fed raised interest rates by the expected 25 basis points. The Fed was unanimous in voting for a rate hike yesterday. They revised their wording regarding economic growth from 'modest' to 'moderate,' which suggests a bit of an improvement. They continued to lament the elevated core inflation rate. And cautioned that last month's greater than expected decline in CPI was just one data point, and they would not get too excited about it. But they also stopped short of giving any hints on what lies ahead for September. They could raise another 25 basis points, or maintain the current level. And they would let the data inform their decisions, saying there would be 2 more employment reports before then, and more inflation data. In fact, another inflation report is coming out on Friday – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. While we've seen some sizeable declines in the CPI numbers (core is 5.3% vs. last year's peak of 6.6%), and PPI numbers (core is at 2.8% vs. last year's peak of 8.2%), the declines have been smaller for the PCE (core was last at 4.7% vs. last year's peak of 5.3%). So all eyes will be on Friday's PCE report. That comes out at 8:30 AM ET. In other news, yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications fell -1.8% w/w, with purchases down -2.5%, and refi's down -0.4%. New Home Sales came in at 697,000 units (annualized) vs. last month's downwardly revised 715K (previously 763K), and views for 727K. The Survey of Business Uncertainty showed businesses slightly reducing their 12-month forward sales growth outlook from 4.98% to 4.31%, while slightly increasing their employment growth outlook from 4.34% to 4.40%. And the State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 0.8 points to 96.2. North America saw the biggest increase with 1.3 points at 90.8. Asia rose by 0.7 points to 97.3. While the European component fell by -5.4 points to 99.5. Today we'll get the first estimate for Q2 GDP (consensus is for 1.5% vs. Q1's 2.0%), Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, and Pending Home Sales. We'll also get more earnings with another 382 companies on deck to report. Yesterday saw some big beats: Boeing posted a positive EPS surprise of 17.17% before the open, and was up 8.72%; ADP posted a 3.28% positive EPS surprise before the open, and rose 5.39%; and Coca-Cola posted a positive EPS surprise of 8.33% before the open, and gained 1.29%. After the close, it was Meta's turn, and they posted a 12.54% positive EPS surprise, and a 3.51% positive sales surprise. They were up more than 7% after-hours. Stocks are having another fine week. The Dow especially, as they extended their winning streak to 13 days. That's their longest winning streak since 1987. With 2 more days to go, all of the indexes are poised for another up week. And if earnings, by and large, continue to beat, we should see those gains continue. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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