The first half of 2023 – at least in the investment world – was one for the ages. Stocks absolutely soared. The S&P 500 Index was up about 17%. But that was nothing compared with the Nasdaq 100 Index. It was up 39% in the first half of 2023
Editor's note: We're turning the Chaikin PowerFeed over to a familiar guest today...
By now, regular readers know Brett Eversole. He's the editor and main analyst behind True Wealth and its related publications at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research.
Now, Brett approaches the data from a different angle than Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin. But as we've mentioned before, they share a lot of the same "bullish" beliefs today.
With that in mind, you need to hear Brett's latest thoughts about tech stocks...
This Rare Setup Means the Nasdaq Boom Can Continue
By Brett Eversole, editor, Stansberry Research
The first half of 2023 – at least in the investment world – was one for the ages.
Stocks absolutely soared. The S&P 500 Index was up about 17%. But that was nothing compared with the Nasdaq 100 Index. It was up 39% in the first half of 2023 – nearly 2.5 times the S&P 500's return in the same time frame.
That massive gain has the tech-heavy index stretched to a rare level. And you might think that would hurt future returns.
But history shows a different outcome...
Instead, this rare setup means the gains will likely continue. And we could even see 23% upside over the next year.
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With nearly a 40% jump in just six months, it's no wonder prices feel stretched to the upside.
It might feel like tech stocks have risen too far, too fast. And a fall back to Earth might seem imminent. But in the case of the Nasdaq 100, that's not a smart bet to make today.
To show you what I mean, let's look at the index versus its long-term trend – or 200-day moving average ("DMA"). That's simply the average of the past 200 closing prices.
The Nasdaq 100 is in an uptrend if it trades above the 200-DMA. Below that level, the index is in a downtrend. And as investors, we want to buy when the trend is in our favor.
We also know that as the price moves further above the 200-DMA, the risk of a snapback increases. So it seems scary if the long-term trend gets too high above that level.
And right now, the Nasdaq 100 is massively above that level. Take a look...
The Nasdaq 100 was more than 20% above its long-term trend line for most of last month. It hit 24% at its peak. That's a crazy reading considering the long-term average is around 4%.
To see what that means going forward, I looked at every new instance of the index hitting 20% above its 200-DMA since 1985. This has only happened 15 other times.
And the good news is... it has a history of leading to fantastic returns.
Take a look...
The Nasdaq 100 has an impressive long-term track record. It has led to 13.5% annual gains over the past four decades. And surprisingly, you can increase those returns by buying when the market stretches above the 200-DMA like it's doing today...
Similar instances led to 7.3% gains in three months, 12.9% gains in six months, and 22.9% gains over the next year. That's fantastic outperformance.
What's more, this isn't what we expect to see. Typically, this kind of setup leads to slowing returns. But in this case, it tells us the uptrend is on fire – and will likely continue.
In simple terms, the market is firing on all cylinders right now.
You can choose to fight it and look for reasons not to invest. Or you can accept reality and get on board.
I recommend you do the latter.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.26%
13
15
2
S&P 500
+0.02%
199
260
40
Nasdaq
-0.32%
61
34
4
Small Caps
+0.80%
655
987
299
Bonds
+0.09%
Communication Services
+1.56%
10
7
3
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are strongly Bullish.. Major indexes are all strongly bullish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+4.30%
Utilities
+3.26%
Health Care
+2.34%
Materials
+2.02%
Staples
+1.69%
Financial
+1.31%
Industrials
+0.78%
Real Estate
+0.67%
Communication
-0.95%
Information Technology
-2.09%
Discretionary
-3.00%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Equipment Services
25
40
8
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Equipment subsector (XHE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -10.60%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #10 of 21 subsectors.
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