Stocks Soared Yesterday, On Pace To Close Higher For The Week Image: Bigstock Stocks soared yesterday with all of the major indexes in the green. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the mid-cap S&P 400 led the way with gains of 1.40% and 1.23% respectively. Yesterday's Producer Price Index (PPI) was mixed. The headline number was up 0.7% m/m vs. last month's upwardly revised 0.4% and views for the same. On a y/y basis it was up 1.6% vs. last month's 0.8% and views for 1.3%. The core rate (ex-food & energy), was up 0.2%, which was under last month's upwardly revised 0.4% and in line with expectations. On a y/y basis it came in at 2.2% vs. last month's 2.4% and the consensus for 2.3%. Like Wednesday's CPI reading, energy, in large part, lifted the headline number above last month. But stripping energy out allowed core rates to fall vs. last month. This week's inflation reports are unlikely to change what is expected to be a rate pause at next week's FOMC announcement on September 20. At the moment, the odds of a rate hike this month are only at roughly 5%. But the odds shift to a 40% chance for a hike when they meet in November. Quite frankly, I don't think the market is that worried over the fate of just one more hike. If one more hike turns into two, then that would be cause for concern. But the market has been prepared for one more hike to bring the Fed Funds rate to the midpoint level of roughly 5.6% for months. And if they do it, it would hardly be a surprise. What the market is more concerned about is how long will rates stay at these elevated levels. That's a debate for another time as we still don't know for certain at what level the hikes will end. But for now, we do appear to be nearing the end, if we haven't already hit it. But since the Fed continues to insist they will be data dependent, if inflation keeps ticking up (even though core rate is not), that will likely impact the Fed's decision at some point. In other news, Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected, falling by -3,000 to 220,000 vs. the consensus for 225K. Retail Sales came in better than expected, rising 0.6% m/m vs. last month's 0.5% and views for 0.2%. Ex-vehicles it was up 0.6% vs. last month's 0.7% and views for 0.4%. And ex-vehicles & gas it was up 0.2% vs. last month's 0.7% and views for 0.1%. And Business Inventories came in at 0.0% m/m, which was up from last month's -0.1%, but under estimates for 0.1%. Today we'll get the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import and Export Prices, Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment. With one more day to go, the indexes are on pace to close up for the week. We could see some extra volatility today as it's Quadruple Witching – that's when index futures, stock futures, index options, and stock options all expire. But the momentum has shifted back to the upside. And if all goes well, that could mean an up week for the markets as we head into next week. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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