Stocks Up On Friday, But Down For The Week, Two Inflation Reports On Tap For This Week  Image: Bigstock Stocks closed modestly higher on Friday but down for the week. Wholesale Inventories slipped -0.2% m/m vs. last month's downwardly revised -0.7% and views for -0.1%. And Consumer Credit fell to $10.4 billion m/m vs. last month's downwardly revised $14.0B and views for $18.0B. The previous week's inflation report (which ticked slightly higher), and employment report (which cooled a bit, but still came in strong), was enough for many to believe that the Fed will hit the pause button when they meet next week on September 19-20. In fact, the odds of a rate hike are only at roughly 5%. But the odds shift to a 40% chance for a hike when they meet in November. So even if the Fed does stand pat next week, the debate on whether the Fed raises rates again (and how high, not to mention for how long), will continue for at least a couple more months. But before the Fed meets next week, we'll get two more inflation reports this week that could influence their decision: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 13, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 14. On a separate note, Apple will be unveiling their new iPhone 15 on Tuesday (September 12). Apple sank -5.95% last week on reports that China will ban government officials from using iPhones for work, or even bringing them into the office. Apple's downturn weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq given its weighting in the indexes. With Apple's revenue declining for the last 3 quarters, and iPhone sales declining for the last 2 quarters, there's a lot riding on the success of the newest iPhone. Investors and analysts will also be listening for confirmation on reports that Apple plans to raise the prices on the newest model(s), and drop the Lightning charger that's currently used for iPhones and switch to the USB-C format for the new phones. That could help bolster revenue. But could also keep some people away, forcing them to put off upgrading their phone until they absolutely have to. The Apple event will take place on Tuesday, 9/12 at 10:00 AM PST. This week will be a busy one. Same for next week. How the market interprets these upcoming events will help determine the direction of the next leg of the market. Fortunately, the odds favor a rally. Since 1950, if the S&P is up by more than 15% thru August (it was up 17.4% this year), with August being down (which it was), then September is typically up with a median gain of 3.3%, and a win ratio of 86% (6 out of 7 instances). Those are good odds. So let the week begin. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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