Stocks Poised To Close Higher For The 3rd Week In A Row  Image: Bigstock Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow modestly lower, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed modestly higher. Yesterday morning's beats by Walmart and Alibaba, but disappointing price reactions, were not enough to derail the markets. Same goes for Wednesday's after-hours beat, but lowered guidance by Cisco. There was no reprieve for them as they were down yesterday. But the market held firm. That will be put to the test again today after yesterday afternoon's earnings by Applied Materials. They posted a positive EPS surprise of 7.07%, and a positive sales surprise 3.07%. But they were trading lower by roughly -7% in after-hours trade. In other news, yesterday's weekly Jobless Claims rose by 13,000 to 231K vs. estimates for 222K. Although, the smoother 4-week moving average came in at 220.25K. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improved to -5.9 vs. last month's -9.0 and the consensus for -11.0. The Housing Market Index came in at 34 vs. last month's 40 and views for the same. And Industrial Production slipped -0.6% m/m vs. last month's 0.1% and estimates for -0.3%. Manufacturing Output was down -0.7% vs. last month's 0.2% and views for -0.3%. And the Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.9% vs. last month's 79.5% and expectations for 79.4%. Today we'll get the Housing Starts and Permits report, E-Commerce Sales, and the Quarterly Services Survey. With one more day to go, stocks are up sharply for the week, and are poised to make it their 3rd up week in a row. This week's better than expected CPI and PPI reports have confirmed that inflation continues to fall. And that's strengthened the belief that the Fed might very well be done with their rate hike cycle after all. We won't know for sure until their next FOMC announcement on December 13. But Fed Funds Traders currently have a 99.7% probability that the Fed will stand pat on rates for the third meeting in row. After that, it's 2024. And the Fed themselves have forecasted that next year they will likely begin cutting rates. All of this bodes well for a continuing Q4 rally. As for next year, you'll recall a stat I repeated numerous times this year in which I highlighted that year 3 of the Presidential Cycle (that's this year), is the best year of all 4 years (since 1950, stocks have always gone up in the year after midterms, with an average 12-month forward return of 18.6%). Well this year is soon coming to a close. But gladly, year 4 of the Presidential Cycle (that's 2024), is the second best year, and that suggests more gains to come. Best,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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