However, when you dive below the surface of the market, one sector is actually more oversold today than during October's swoon. And if you're hunting for value in a red-hot market, this is where you want to focus.
Today, we'll dive into the data looking at two valuation metrics that make names from this deeply oversold sector a top choice in the weeks and months ahead.
Then I'll single out one stock you should consider for 2024.
For the first time I've ever heard of... we know the exact day (and time) a bubble is going to burst. This is insane and something we only have access to because of Jason's findings (that he's sharing with his ultra-elite clients). To find out what the cash bubble is and why you're vulnerable to it without even realizing...
It's also uncovered by those who do their research.
While it's true that the S&P 500 is not cheap by a price-to-earnings (P/E) measure, when you look below the surface you see how certain unloved areas meet the "cheap" criteria.
When it comes to the P/E ratio, readings of 20 or higher are generally expensive, while valuations approaching 10 are considered inexpensive.
Here I've broken down all S&P sectors by their next-12-months forward P/E (NTM). The S&P 500 sports an elevated 18.9 reading. But take note of the sector in the bargain basement, at a lowly 10.35 NTM P/E:
The NTM P/E can also be thought of as a sentiment barometer. A 10 reading suggests little excitement from the trader community on Energy stocks. Contrast that to the 26.2 valuation of the Info Tech space.
Folks are placing their bets on growth. It's easy to see why — there's lots of celebration over the A.I. revolution.
However, you can't dismiss the oversold energy stocks. Because what you're getting paid to own the unloved energy space — especially Oil & Gas stocks — is off the charts.
If you've been following along in TradeSmith Daily, you know I love stocks that pay dividends, which are a share of profits that companies pay back to shareholders.
The S&P 500 has a meager dividend yield of 1.47%… not too sexy.
But after the latest Energy stock dump, payouts offered by the Energy sector are uber attractive, with a 3.85% average yield. For those keeping score, that yield is 162% higher than the market's!
Sooner or later, the public will wise up to this hidden-in-plain-sight value.
My view is that next year's money shift will be the trigger that sends cash flowing out of less-attractive money market funds and into dividend-rich stocks.
And one elite dividend grower is worthy of consideration today.
Former Wall Street insider Jason Bodner has built a system that tracks massive trades placed by Wall Street on private networks known as Dark Pools. It would have predicted the 2000 Tech Bubble, the 2008 Housing Crash, and the 2020 Covid Crash. Now it's saying something big is happening in 2024.
By clicking you'll be automatically registered for The Dark Pool Summit.
One All-star Dividend Aristocrat: Chevron
When it comes to dividend stocks, you should focus on continuous dividend growth. That means isolate businesses that constantly produce bigger and bigger profits… then return a larger share of those profits to shareholders.
One surefire place to get dependable cash-flowing dividend payouts is in the Oil & Gas space.
But you must be choosy. Only top-shelf companies are worth a long-term investment.
Take Chevron Corp. (CVX). CVX has the resume that dividend investors dream about.
With 36 years of continuous dividend hikes, consider the following facts about CVX:
5-year free cash flow compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 40.4%. This amounts to nearly $21.6 billion in free cash flow expected for 2023.
5-year net income CAGR is 31%. This translates to $25.8 billion in expected income for 2023.
5-year dividend growth is 34.8%. At the current dividend of $1.51, Chevron's dividend yield is a juicy 4.2%.
CVX sports a super cheap forward P/E of 10… even cheaper than the 10.35 forward P/E of the sector.
If these points don't get your bullish juices flowing, maybe the following chart will.
Chevron has been punished so much lately that the shares are trading at an 8.5% discount to its 200-day moving average.
At $145 a share, today's levels match September 2022's prices:
Source: YahooFinance
It's simple. Valuations are at rock-bottom for Energy stocks.
Not only that, Energy stocks overall are paying shareholders nearly 4% on average.
Given Chevron's decades of paying and raising dividends, and its higher-than-average yield, this appears to be a smart bet.
And with the stock price nearly 9% below its 200-day moving average, this is a bargain-basement deal, folks.
John D. Rockefeller said it best, "The best business in the world is a well-run oil company. The second best business in the world is a badly run oil company."
What I'm suggesting with CVX today is a well-run oil company.
If you're looking for strong yields in a cheaply valued sector, you can't do better than energy stocks right now. And it may well be a favorite target of dividend-seekers as risk-free yields retract in 2024.
We'll keep searching for great dividend plays for you right here in TradeSmith Daily, so make sure you don't miss a single issue.
Regards, Lucas Downey, Contributing Editor, TradeSmith Daily
P.S. We're a day and change away from the debut of Jason Bodner's Dark Pools webinar.
And that means your limited-time access to use Jason's Quantum Edge rating system for free — which you can secure right here with just one click — is almost gone.
Jason's sharing his proprietary rating on 20 tickers he selected — some of which I'm confident you own in your brokerage account. This will show you which stocks are duds that could vastly underperform the market in 2024… and which could put the Magnificent 7 to shame.
Beyond this system, signing up for the Dark Pools event gets you access to exclusive videos and essays that demonstrate the power of Jason's technique, which beat the S&P 500 by 7-to-1 in a backtest using data all the way back to 1990.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
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