Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance After November's furious upside rally, many traders and investors are all wondering the same thing... Can the rally continue? To help answer that question, let's examine where the major market indexes stand in terms of one of the most time-tested and important predictive models ever created... The Dow Theory. As a quick reminder, the Dow Theory is a financial concept that says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages advances above a previous important high... and then that move is accompanied by a similar advance in another average. So, for example... If the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to climb to an intermediate high and then the Dow Jones Transportation Average ALSO climbed to an intermediate high, the upside trend would be confirmed, according to the Dow Theory. This approach was created by Charles H. Dow, who, along with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser, founded Dow Jones & Company in 1882 and developed the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. Dow famously fleshed out his theory in a series of Wall Street Journal editorials. He would die in 1902, but one of the hallmarks of his work still holds true today: the idea that in order to confirm an upside or downside trend, one critical box must be checked. Indexes Must Confirm Each Other Dow insisted that for a trend to be established, the signals that occur on one index must match or correspond with the signals on another. Dow's assumption was... If business conditions were truly healthy, then industrial stocks and, say, railroad stocks should be rising simultaneously. Therefore, a confirmation of highs in both sectors would've made him confident enough to call a bull market. So, with that in mind... Where do the major market averages stand right now? |
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