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Bumpy But Positive Earnings

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Then brace for a more significant retracement
 
   
     
   
 
JAN 17, 2024
   
GUY COHEN’S MARKET MOVERS + TRADE RADAR
Bumpy But Positive Earnings

We took the day off — along with most markets — on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. So today I’ve got a double dose for you.

First up, is our weekly watchlist:

 
 
 

The three major indices are staying close to local highs, but the IWM is struggling to maintain its current position.

The likelihood is of a somewhat bumpy but positive earnings season, followed by a more interesting pullback post-earnings, which would create plenty of optimal setups for us.


Keep sticking with our game plan of AAA setups near Key Levels. Don’t get distracted by missed opportunities.



Next up, my market analysis & video:
 
 

Last week I said that while the main indices had retraced (apart from the DIA) I expected them to rebound as we get into earnings season.

This is exactly what happened, though the financials didn’t have a great week as the big boys started to announce.

It all bodes for a some upward but inconsistent trajectory during earnings, but as I’ve said a few times, I expect this market to run out of steam after earnings season. A retracement then would set us up nicely for the rest of the year with plenty of bullish Shrinking Retracements.

 
Follow the money,

— Guy Cohen

 
 
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PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
Halving a Blast: Countdown To The Big Bang
 

Remember the good ol' days when Bitcoin was just digital funny money for tech geeks? Well, fasten your seatbelts, folks, because the crypto world is gearing up to go mainstream, with 2 big forces supercharging this digital currency.

It's not just the crypto diehards paying attention. Thanks to the recent approval by the SEC of 11 shiny new Bitcoin spot ETFs, everyone and their grandma could soon hop on the Bitcoin bandwagon.

First off, let's talk about the halving. For those scratching their heads, the Bitcoin halving is an event that takes place roughly every four years. When it happens, Bitcoin essentially goes on a “diet”, cutting the rewards for mining Bitcoin in half.

It's a mechanism built into the design of Bitcoin to sharply limit the supply. Historically, these halvings have been like a shot of adrenaline to Bitcoin's price, sending it skyrocketing.

So far we’ve had 3 halvings: 2012, 2016 and 2020.

This chart shows when each halving took place (thin, blue vertical line) and just how Bitcoin reacted after each halving (green boxes.)

 
 

But 2024's halving has a new twist: the arrival of the previously mentioned Bitcoin spot ETFs.

These ETFs, approved barely a week ago by the SEC, allow — for the first time ever — anyone to invest directly in Bitcoin right from a regular brokerage account.

This is huge because, let's face it, when Wall Street gets excited about something, money follows. And with more money flowing in, the demand for Bitcoin could skyrocket, making this halving the biggest one yet.

With the next halving less than 100 days away (currently estimated at April 20, 2024), things are really heating up.

And all of 2023 was a testament to that. Just look at how Bitcoin has rallied over the past year:

 
 

What happens remains to be seen… But if the past is anything to go by, we could be looking at a crypto rally that will convert even the most hardcore skeptics.

— The Prosperity Pub Team
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