| The market is currently forecasting a sizable decrease in interest rates over the next couple of years. Fed funds futures are projecting a 2-percentage-point decline between now and the end of 2025. In this macro environment, the utilities sector should have a strong tailwind for the next two years. Utilities are very sensitive to interest rates because they need to invest heavily in their capital-intensive operations (power plants, water infrastructure, etc.) and they use a significant amount of debt financing to do it. Debt isn't a huge problem for these companies, though, because their cash flow from operations is extremely reliable. Utilities generally have monopolies in their respective markets. Now, the debt does cut into profits when interest rates are rising, because higher rates cause companies' interest expense to increase. But the opposite is true when rates are falling: Interest expense goes down, and profits widen. Additionally, when interest rates are lower and term deposits are less attractive, investors become more interested in the steady dividends utilities pay. In March 2021, I recommended a power provider by the name of Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST). My bullish view on the company was not a result of the interest rate outlook in any way, shape or form. Interest rates were near 0% at the time, so they had nowhere to go but up. What I saw in Vistra was an incredibly cheap, cash-generating business that the market had punished unfairly for a one-time hit to earnings. Since then, the stock has done incredibly well despite the rise in interest rates. Vistra has returned 145%, versus 28% for the S&P 500 and just 3% for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLU). Readers who jumped on this trade won big! But you may be wondering how Vistra's valuation looks after this massive price increase. To answer that question, let's take a deep dive into the company's financials... |
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