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Free TheoNight Report - Weekend Edition for Friday, February 23, 2024 by Don Kaufman - What to Do About This One-Stock Stock Market
I can think of 499 stocks that might as well hang it up...
Welcome to the S&P 1, where you can buy any stock you want… so long as it's Nvidia. Buyers only, though - no sellers allowed.
I'm only half-joking. Diversification on the S&P 500 is now severely compromised; it's more concentrated than it's ever been. The combined weight of the Top 10 stocks is now north of 32%, having blown way, way past its Dotcom Bubble-era peak of 25%. And it goes almost without saying that diversification as an investment strategy is dead, too.
But, like they say in Texas, "ya gotta dance with the girl that brung ya" and the only way out is through. Its Nvidia's world and we have to trade in it.
The S&P 1, excuse me, S&P 500 largely shrugged off the Fed's fairly hawkish comments earlier - Nvidia's earnings were proportionally much more important to the mood this week. Around 30% of economists still think we'll get a rate cut in May, but most aren't seriously entertaining the notion until at least June. This was no surprise given the inflation data we've absorbed over the past few weeks.
Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has fallen more than 4.2% over the past trading week to settle at 13.72, suggesting investors believe Nvidia is going to be okay! Again, only half-joking. The real driver of action right now is the dispersion trade. Not a lot of regular traders think about this phenomenon. I'll show you how in a second. And most importantly we'll look at "catapult" trades - a way to roll your profits in a low-risk trade into a higher-risk trade. Think of it as playing with the house money." Virtually no risk to your own seed capital.
And...of course we'll get a read on next week's 64.22 expected move. This past week we saw a shorter four-day expected move of 66.97, so we'll look at what this coming week might be like. Let's dive in…
Click here to watch the video
Pro Tip: The best traders manage their risk. Don's favorite way to do it is to put on a low-risk, high-probability trade, then roll the gains over into trades with even higher payoff potential. It's like playing with the house money. Keep your eyes peeled - you're going to be hearing more about this.
Feb 23 - The Only Stocks You Should Be Trading Each Week
There are around 2200 listed companies out there on the exchanges. Of those, around 877 offer options to trade. You can forget about 90% of them. Here are the only stocks and ETFs worth trading right now. You can find them in this free report…
Feb 23 - Blake Young - How to Deal with AI's "Split Personality"
Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks both reported great earnings, but only one lowered guidance… and got clobbered for it. This gets to the heart of what's happening with AI stocks right now. Let's take a look…
Feb 23 - Gianni Di Poce - Free Seminar Replay Is Up Now
Despite a monster coast-to-coast AT&T outage, close to 1,000 of you attended Gianni's free webinar this morning. Everyone who showed up got his stock watchlist… plus a world-class education in how to find the patterns governing the strongest stocks on the market. If you missed it (or you just want to rewatch it for any reason) the recording lives here. You can download the watchlist, too…
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