Stocks Closed Mostly Higher Yesterday After Stronger ADP Jobs Report Underscores Strong Economy Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday with only the Dow missing out. Stocks opened lower, but then quickly turned positive, and stayed there for most of the day. In the last hour, however, they gave back those gains (and then some), before finally turning around once again by the close. Yesterday's OPEC meeting produced no change in production levels. But last month's meeting, where they agreed to a 2.2 million barrel a day cut (until the end of June), still stands. Crude oil was up another 20 cents yesterday, rising to $85.63, a 5-month high. Motor Vehicles Sales slipped to 15.5 million (annualized) vs. last month's 15.7M and views for 16.0M. MBA Mortgage Applications were lower by -0.6% with purchases down -0.1%, and refi's down -1.6%. The PMI Composite Report came in at 52.1 vs. last month's 52.2, while the Services Index was unchanged from last month at 51.7. The ISM Services Index slipped to 51.4 vs. last month's 52.7. In other news yesterday, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said the Fed's job was "not yet done" in the fight against inflation. But followed that up by saying "if the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year." This echoes what was said at last month's FOMC announcement where he essentially said the same thing, and reiterated his forecast for 3 rate cuts this year. Yesterday's ADP Employment Report came in better than expected at 184,000 private payroll jobs vs. the consensus for 150,000. The ADP report is often looked at as a precursor to the official Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) a couple days later on Friday. Estimates for Friday's BLS report has private payrolls coming in at 170,000 (and a total of 200,000 when you include the public sector). Fortunately, Mr. Powell has acknowledged that a strong jobs market will not preclude the Fed from lowering rates. And he recognizes that inflation can keep falling even if the labor market stays strong. Because so far, that's exactly been the case – interest rates have gone up, inflation has fallen quite a bit, while unemployment remains near record lows. But there's no denying that the unemployment rate is a proxy for the economy. And a strong jobs market does complicate their task of reducing inflation even further. So all eyes will be on Friday's jobs report. In the meantime, we'll get the Challenger-Job Cut Report today, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the International Trade in Goods and Services report. And we'll see if the market can build upon yesterday's gains, and turn things into the positive by week's end. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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