After 52 thefts and $30,000 worth of stolen goods, the cops finally got Michael Lee... Lee is accused of shoplifting from 11 different Target (TGT) stores. And just a few weeks ago, police arrested him outside a Target in southern Maryland during a reported "theft in progress."
America Needs to Solve Its Retail Theft Problem
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
After 52 thefts and $30,000 worth of stolen goods, the cops finally got Michael Lee...
Lee is accused of shoplifting from 11 different Target (TGT) stores. And just a few weeks ago, police arrested him outside a Target in southern Maryland during a reported "theft in progress."
Now, it's an ongoing investigation. And I can't say for sure whether Lee is guilty or not.
But the idea of this shoplifting spree itself is part of a bigger, more disturbing trend...
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Across America, retail theft is booming.
In May 2023, one worker told the San Francisco Standard about what was happening at a downtown store...
Look in some corner of the store, and you'll see people shovelling stuff into a bag – food, cosmetics.
A second worker at the same store said robbers hit it at least 10 times a day. And another worker said that lipstick and nail polish were key targets.
Last August, a group of thieves casually entered a Nordstrom (JWN) outlet in Los Angeles. They started smashing glass cases. And they walked out with more than $300,000 in goods.
It all happened in broad daylight.
Earlier this year, police charged two New Yorkers with possessing more than $1 million in stolen goods. More than $200,000 of the items came from Macy's (M). And the people charged were reselling the items through their own business in Manhattan.
Sure, I get it...
Shoplifting isn't a new problem. It has happened for as long as we've shopped at all.
Nowadays, the U.S. retail industry calls it "shrink." And retailers typically expect shrink of anywhere from 1% to 1.5% of net sales.
But in 2023, U.S. retail-store shrink came in at an estimated 2%. That works out to roughly $142 billion – more than 25% higher than the previous year. Take a look...
These kinds of losses eat away at the heart of the U.S. economy – consumer spending.
As a result, several companies have started taking matters into their own hands...
In fact, you might've noticed changes at Target, Walmart (WMT), or Dollar General (DG).
Many of these retailers' stores no longer keep some items on shelves. They're now locked inside glass cabinets. If you want something, you need to ask a worker to open the lock.
Stores lock up a lot of low-value "essentials" these days – like deodorant, makeup, and perfume. That's because shoplifters often take these items to resell them.
For valuable and sensitive items like cellphones and over-the-counter medicine, a worker might even walk you to the cashier. The store wants to make sure you plan to pay.
The stores that lock up these items have good intentions. They want to deter shoplifters.
But at the same time... they hurt the shopping experience for paying customers.
No one wants to stand around waiting for a worker to open a locked case. They'd rather just grab the item off an open shelf and move on.
Worse, if regular folks feel like potential criminals as soon as they walk in, they'll likely take their business elsewhere. They'll also be more motivated to shop online.
Put simply, the big rise in shoplifting is causing a lot of headaches for regular shoppers. And in turn, that's creating a lot of trouble when it comes to retailers' bottom lines.
This problem won't disappear overnight, either. So we need to come up with a solution.
And on this front, stores themselves are turning to technology...
In fact, one company is now combining a common tool in the retail business with the power of artificial intelligence ("AI"). It allows retailers to control shrink and keep shoppers happy.
And right now, the opportunity ahead of this company translates into double-digit upside for the stock.
In the latest issue of my Power Gauge Report newsletter, I shared all the details. If you aren't already a subscriber, you can find out how to become one and gain instant access to this recommendation plus the full portfolio of open recommendations by clicking here.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+1.81%
10
17
3
S&P 500
+0.58%
145
297
54
Nasdaq
+0.04%
31
52
16
Small Caps
+3.4%
731
1007
236
Bonds
+1.39%
Industrials
+2.49%
28
43
5
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Industrials
+6.08%
Real Estate
+5.57%
Materials
+5.45%
Financial
+4.17%
Energy
+3.99%
Health Care
+3.39%
Discretionary
+2.46%
Utilities
+1.8%
Staples
+0.88%
Information Technology
-0.36%
Communication
-0.45%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Insurance Services
23
25
1
Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -5.58%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #6 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 5 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
RGA
Reinsurance Group of
AXS
AXIS Capital Holding
MKL
Markel Group Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
MOH
+8.22%
BLDR
+8.01%
WBD
+7.55%
MTCH
+7.46%
STT
+7.45%
Losers
SCHW
-10.18%
RJF
-6.28%
CEG
-3.76%
AMP
-3.76%
PGR
-3.27%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
ELV, NTRS, SYF, USB
CFG, DFS
JNJ
CCI, EFX, KMI, PLD, STLD
UAL
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
PGR The Progressive Corporation
Q2
$3.76
Beat by $0.55
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
Q2
$1.32
Missed by $-0.18
MS Morgan Stanley
Q2
$1.82
Beat by $0.17
PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Q2
$3.30
Beat by $0.23
STT State Street Corporation
Q2
$2.15
Beat by $0.13
* * * *
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