Money & Markets Daily: The 5 |
Money & Markets Daily,
It’s time to get on the fast track to stock profits — with the five things you need to make money this week … in just five minutes.
Let’s get started!
Milei's Quest in Argentina
Say what you will about Argentina President Javier Milei … out-in-left-field policies, bombastic personality, wild hair…
Now, you can add “budget balancer” to that list.
From a 200% inflation rate (and you thought America's was high) to selling off airplanes and cutting the number of official vehicles and drivers by half, Milei aggressively cut the country’s expenses.
Last week, he proposed a budget to Argentina’s Congress that would end the country’s deficit for the first time in 123 years.
Milei pitched his budget to Congress rather than the traditional approach of going through his economic minister, and he vowed to veto any bill or budget with less than a “zero deficit.”
And all of this in less than a year after he officially took office as Argentina’s first libertarian president.
However, the underlying problem with Milei’s aggressive austerity measures has been economic pain throughout the country. Nearly 60% of Argentinians are now living in poverty, compared to 44% in December 2023, according to a study from Catholic University.
Milei's budget proposal includes cutting monetary transfers to provinces, removing energy and transport subsidies and freezing wages and pensions.
One area where Milei has vowed to increase spending is defense. He pledged to increase defense spending from 0.5% of GDP to 2.1%.
Now, Milei’s budget is in Congress's hands, and analysts expect significant headwinds, considering a coalition of Milei’s opponents controls it.
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Coffee Is Going To Cost You
If you recently stood in line at your favorite coffee house to order your venti pumpkin spice latte with eight shots of espresso, seven pumps of pumpkin sauce, and one pump of maple pecan sauce, you’ve likely noticed the price of that drink has gone up.
The reason?
The price of arabica coffee beans.
Prices for the high-end coffee beans used by coffee shops have jumped nearly 35% since October amid worries about bean crops in Brazil.
As I noted in this November piece on coffee, a severe drought has damaged coffee trees in Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica beans.
Despite a decent crop in October, fears prevail that the coffee flowers aren’t taking to the tree branches, thus reducing overall yield.
Coffee bean stockpiles are down due to an increase in arabica exports. They could reduce further if the current crop is weaker than expected.
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I touched on the trend above recently here in our daily newsletter.
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Fed Meeting Highlights Week Before Christmas
Investors will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week, the week before the Christmas holiday.
Markets are pricing at a 97% chance that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to set the range at 4.25% to 4.5%.
Most recent numbers show inflation has stayed above the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate while open jobs remain high.
Along with learning if the Fed will cut rates again, investors are also paying attention to any cues on future rate cuts in 2025.
In their last forecast in September, Fed policymakers forecast trimming the rate to a range of 3.25% to 4.5% by the end of 2025, a whole percentage point below the anticipated rate at the end of this year.
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Home for the Holidays
We asked about your holiday travel plans in last week's Money & Markets Daily poll, and the vast majority of you who voted (81%!) said you're staying put.
Holiday travel is hectic, to say the least. In these last two weeks of the year, the TSA expects to screen more than 39 million travelers across airports nationwide.
That's reason enough to bring the party to you!
From the Money & Markets team, we hope you have a wonderful holiday season. Keep watching your inbox for investing insights to keep you entertained throughout the close of 2024.
And if you're braving the roads, rails, waters or skies … safe travels!
Safe trading,
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Research Analyst, Money & Markets Daily
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