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Weekend Reading: DeepSeek, Nvidia & Risk

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At Hedgeye, we teach you how to build a go-anywhere Macro portfolio—one that isn't tied to Wall Street's latest hype.

Dear Investor

If you want to protect and grow your hard-earned capital without suffering crashes, you need diversification. Period.

Before we get into it, here's your Weekend Reading:

  • [READ] Keith McCullough on DeepSeek, Trump Trades, Bitcoin, Gold, and More
  • [READ] Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide To Process and Profit
  • [COMPLIMENTARY] Bitcoin Trend Tracker: 8 Bullish Signals In Crypto
  • [WATCH] The Fractal Secret of Decision-Making: TOPGUN Style

At Hedgeye, we teach you how to build a go-anywhere Macro portfolio—one that isn't tied to Wall Street's latest hype.

Right now, investors are being funneled into an increasingly concentrated set of stocks. The so-called "Magnificent 7" ($GOOGL, $AMZN, $AAPL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) now make up 35% of the S&P.

That's a massive risk.

Look what happened when Chinese company DeepSeek announced a reportedly more efficient AI chatbot. Nvidia stock tanked 17% in a day, wiping out $593 billion in market value. AI-exposed semiconductor stocks lost $1 trillion. (For more, watch my 27-minute conversation with David Linn, host of the David Linn Report.)

Blindly following the crowd is dangerous.

At Hedgeye, we don't fall in love with tickers. Every asset—whether it's Singaporean equities, Natural Gas, or the Nasdaq—is just inventory. Our job is to buy when it's time to buy, sell when it's time to sell, and never get trapped by Wall Street's narratives.

That might sound unconventional. But what's crazier—applying risk management to Corn and High Yield Credit, or betting everything on a CEO in a leather jacket, signing bras, and calling demand for his product "insane" while quietly dumping shares on you?

Investors could learn a lot about risk management from the world's best fighter pilots. That's the subject of a conversation I'll be having next week with Capt. Brian "Ponch" Rivera, USNR (Ret.), "The Fractal Secret of Decision-Making: TOPGUN Style."

Here's the truth: There's a right time to BUY any asset. And there's a right time to SELL. Wall Street won't tell you that—because they don't get paid when you sell.

Someone who invested in Bitcoin at the 2021 peak lost -78% by the time Bitcoin bottomed. That requires a +354% return just to get back to breakeven. If you bought the 2021 peak, it took almost 3 years for Bitcoin to get back to breakeven.

A better strategy is to just follow our "Bitcoin Trend Tracker" – which provides buy low, sell high levels for Bitcoin and 13 other crypto-related assets, including Ethereum and companies like Coinbase (COIN) and Microstrategy (MSTR).

Here's an easy reference for how to use our "Bitcoin Trend Tracker":

  • BUY: An asset that is at the low end of the range and in a bullish trend
  • SELL: An asset that is at the top end of the range and in a bearish trend

Check out this complimentary edition of Friday's "Bitcoin Trend Tracker."

I've spent 24 years refining this Global Macro approach. If you want to learn a #BetterWay to invest, download my 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide To Process and Profit" for FREE.

At Hedgeye, we seek the truth. We expose the lies—whether they come from the Fed, a CEO, or the next fraudster like Sam Bankman-Fried. And when we uncover the truth, there's a big pot of money waiting for those who act on it.

This is my life's work. Join us.

Keith McCullough
CEO & Founder
Hedgeye Risk Management


 

ABOUT HEDGEYE

Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research and online financial media company, focused exclusively on generating and delivering thoughtful investment ideas in a proven buy-side process.  The firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing.  

The Hedgeye team features some of the most highly-regarded research analysts on Wall Street, covering Macro, Financials, Healthcare, Retail, Gaming, Lodging & Leisure (GLL), Restaurants, Energy, Cannabis, Global Technology, Software, REITS, Industrials, Communications, Consumer Staples, Housing, Materials, Demography and Washington policy analysis, including Macro, Telecom & Media, and Healthcare.

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1 High Ridge Park
Stamford, CT 06905

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