| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Monday March 31, 2025 | Seven Charts That Put the Gold Bull Market in Context "We have gold because we cannot trust government." – Herbert Hoover 
 March 31, 2025 — Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn't break resistance at $2,000/oz?
Here it is in the context of this century's bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024. 
What's driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what's driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine war broke out: 
While the above was happening, the BRICS countries' cumulative GDP surpassed that of the G-7 developed countries. As Incrementum notes:
Continued Below... | Inside the President's covert plan to recapture forgotten U.S. territories, seize precious resources and spark a $20 trillion wealth wave… 
Stocks connected to Trump's New Deal are already surging – discover the #1 investment to make before May 30 | For years, the BRICS+ countries have had a considerable trade and current account surplus with the West. A steadily increasing share of gold in the currency reserves of emerging economies is the manifestation of this development. This is similar to the situation after the Second World War, when Europe, especially Germany and France, successively increased their gold reserves as a result of high current account surpluses. In contrast, U.S. gold reserves fell to almost one quarter, or just over 8,000 tonnes, as a result of the gold drain. While the U.S. experienced a gold drain in the 1960s, there are currently signs of a gold gain in the emerging markets. 
Not surprisingly, China, with its persistent trade surplus, has been a leading buyer of gold. 
As they accumulate gold, foreign central banks are dumping U.S. dollar-denominated debt. 
China is also encouraging its citizens to own gold. The resulting strong domestic demand is driving gold prices to a premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This, in turn, is increasing the flow of gold from West to East. From Incrementum:
The enormous Chinese appetite for gold can be seen in the premium for Chinese gold compared to LBMA prices. The high domestic demand in China is also being fueled by China's youth, who have recently discovered gold beans as an investment opportunity. In addition, import restrictions or tariffs on gold imports could keep prices in China artificially high. Another reason is likely to be China's withdrawal from the LBMA gold auctions last year, which may have restricted the volume of gold flowing into China. 
Western investment advisors have yet to recognize the above dynamic. In 2023, 71% of their clients have virtually no exposure to gold, and that number has barely risen since then. 
A Bull Market With Legs
The trends driving the gold bull market — de-dollarization, inflation, and a looming currency reset — accelerated in the past year and have much further to go. Combined with the apparent cluelessness of Western investors, the result should be higher gold demand and rising prices in the coming decade. Keep stacking!
Regards,
John Rubino, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
P.S. from Addison: The gold trade still has room to go. Please review our research on the gold bull and our investment recommendations here.
"I have always enjoyed Addyson's thoughts and commentary," writes Joan. D "I hope the new format still has some of that!"
It will, indeed.
The new format gives us a lot of opportunities to keep up with the very stroke of the executive autopen! The second Trump administration is rapidly realigning the U.S. position in global politics; new policies (tariffs!) and advancements in AI are rebooting the entire U.S. economy, and — every day – your investments and your money are reflecting those changes…
Here's how we'll keep track: With "Swan Dive," you'll get a quick analysis of 3-5 pertinent news items before the market opens each day.
Then, at lunchtime, "Ripple Effect" will show you, in one concise chart or pithy quote, how new policies are impacting the market. We're searching for those small factoids that reveal larger trends all at once.
After the market closes each day, "Beneath the Surface" will take a deeper dive into specific Grey Swan trends that are taking shape and moving the needle in the markets and economics. See what we did there?
We'll have plenty of chances to point out things that make you go "hmmm…" and add a snarky comment or two.
Any first impressions? Please add your ideas or suggestions right here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com | 
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