| Swan Dive — April 23, 2025 A Pause in the Rubble Addison Wiggin U.S. futures are up, the dollar’s nudging higher, and the market’s breathing just a bit easier — for now. President Trump apparently can’t or won’t keep his comments to himself.
Again, the media interpreted a few randomly chosen words from the president as stepping back from the ledge. Yesterday, the president said he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite calling him a “major loser” over the Fed’s refusal to cut interest rates the day before.
Trump also promised to be “very nice” to China in upcoming trade talks, hinting that tariffs could drop “substantially, but it won’t be zero,” he clarified.
Wall Street rallied like it had just gotten a text from Dad saying he wasn’t actually going to sell the house. But, as Bloomberg’s John Authers aptly notes, it would be unwise to treat this as a true turning point.
If you’re trying to plan your retirement portfolio over the dribs and drabs that pose as actual news or policy during this presidency, don’t.
📉 Relief Rally or Just a Pause in the Rubble The S&P 500 gained 2% yesterday and added another 2% in early trading this morning. A solid bounce, sure. Even Powell’s continued employment counts as good news. That’s where we are now.
But this is what relief looks like — not recovery. After the rare trifecta of stocks, bonds, and the dollar all dropping together earlier this week, investors are grasping for anything resembling solid ground. And as financial advisors are fond of pointing out, many of the market’s best one-day returns occur during bear markets.
This non-stock investment is on an absolute tear… It has broken one record after another: - $2,500 an ounce in August…
- $2,700 in October…
- $2,900 in February…
- $3,000 in March…
- $3,250 just this past week…
I’m talking about GOLD — it just keeps climbing higher and higher. And the party is just getting started… I expect it to surge 7X — to $22,227 an ounce — in the next 24 months.
These 3 simple charts show why.
Better yet, I’ve also found a way ordinary investors could potentially make $5 for every $1 gold climbs higher.
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🚗 Elon Steps Exits Stage Left Tesla Motors jumped 6% last night after CEO Elon Musk promised to “pull back significantly” from his moonlighting in U.S. government operations to focus on, well, the company he actually runs.
First-quarter earnings were weak, with net income down 71% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Investor confidence has been shaken not just by the numbers but also by Musk’s increasingly erratic political messaging and otherwise healthy middle-class white men vandalizing his customers' cars. 🧨 Musk Unplugs the Swamp DOGE’s efforts haven’t exactly yielded the trillions in savings Musk speculated it would during the election. But north of the Swamp, you can hear the whining.
Considering the nation’s largest employer has 2.3 million on staff, 40,000 federal jobs – representing those who have taken up the President’s offer of early retirement – may not seem like a lot.
However, it is 21% of the capital’s public workforce.
For a city that thrives on guaranteed paychecks and mundane political inertia, and the first place to start hiring during a recession, this is uncharted territory. 📉 Meta’s $7 Billion Tariff Surprise Further north, on Madison Avenue, another unintended casualty of the tariff war is emerging: digital advertising.
Meta could lose up to $7 billion in ad revenue this year due to falling demand from Chinese clients. The company doesn’t operate in China, but it raked in over $18 billion from Chinese advertisers in 2024 — 11% of its total sales.
Much of that came from fast-fashion juggernauts like Shein and Temu. But now? Temu cut ad spending across major U.S. platforms by 31% over just two weeks, according to Sensor Tower.
And it’s not just Meta feeling the squeeze — Google, Amazon, and even the restaurant and tourism sectors may pull back. Just in time for upfront season, the advertising world’s high-stakes pitch fest. Timing, as always, is a cruel partner in policy. 💰 “Bonds here… Getchyer’ Bonds Here!” Trump’s trade pause might help stocks, but the real test comes today at the $70 billion five-year Treasury auction. Global buyers are nervous, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is under pressure to roll over $9 trillion in short-term debt this year… to say nothing of years ahead.  Like stock traders, the bond market is watching for commitment. If foreign buyers balk, yields spike — and the cost of carrying our national tab gets a lot more painful. 🌍 Flight to Safety in Europe Meanwhile, asset managers like Amundi are reporting a sharp reallocation away from U.S. funds and into Europe. That’s right — Europe, the land of bureaucrats, negative rates, and fiscal caution. Why? Because suddenly it looks… predictable. And that, in today’s market, is priceless.
So yes, Trump said Powell can keep his job (for now). And yes, the tariff talk softened (slightly). But let’s not pretend this is anything but a pause in the demolition sequence.
The structure’s still compromised. Protests and other political noise haven’t stopped.
– Addison P.S.: Don’t forget — Grey Swan Live is tomorrow at 11 a.m. ET. We’ll be analyzing the commodity space as a whole with Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Shad Marquitz.
We’ll cover the gamut – gold, natural gas, uranium, thorium, rare earths – you name it. Today, commodities are intermingled with the economy, interest rates, a potential debt crisis, AI power needs and infrastructure spending… It’s a can’t-miss call for members. We’ll see you then.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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