| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Tuesday April 8, 2025 | Ripple Effect — April 8, 2025
In 2023, markets soared over 20%. They did it again in 2024. After two back-to-back 20%+ years, investor expectations were high…
Those hopes have now been dashed against the rocks of soaring global tariff rates.
Markets are always subject to political upheavals.
The state is the most disruptive actor of all…and not in a good way. Disruption in markets from new tech and innovation is good. It fosters competition. But when the state is involved, it’s just a hassle, whether from tariff edicts from the President, laws passed by Congress, a Supreme Court ruling, or the ongoing manipulation of the country’s currency by the Federal Reserve.
Sometimes, things aren’t too disruptive. And the private sector thrives. At other times, governments throw a wrench into the works. Lockdowns, interest rate changes, tax hikes, stimulus checks – it’s all a wild card.
This is all part of President Trump’s America-first global restructuring. And investor expectations for the stock market should be far lower going forward.
These market restructurings are more common than an investor may think:  In the short-term, it’s still going to be a wild market. One where investors will want to focus on companies that can benefit from the MAGA trade, and avoid those companies that are tied to the old order of increased globalism and low production costs. We’ve identified 50 old school companies you don’t want in your portfolio.
But, if Trump gets his way, the economy and tax structure will be on firmer ground, and for the current fears to be well in the rear-view mirror by Independence Day, 2026 – well in time for voters to signal their approval in the midterms.
That’s not a bad thing. But it does mean that investors will have to shift their views on the markets. And that likely means several years of lackluster performance ahead.
That’s why we’ve built a model portfolio that can benefit from the blessings of capitalism, but is resilient to the curse of government… and all the Grey Swans it all too often creates.
Addison | 
A secret meeting just took place in Las Vegas.
Inside exclusive sky suites at the Aria Resort, Wall Street executives gathered to behind closed doors.
They aren't warning the public. They're positioning themselves for what's coming.
By the time you see the headlines, it will be too late. But there's still time — if you act now.
Watch this controversial video now, and send it to everyone you know. | P.S. If you’re a paid Grey Swan member, join me and Andrew for Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, April 10 at 11 AM ET.
Last week, we covered our overall asset allocation strategy. This week, we’ll walk through the model portfolio — what’s held up, what’s breaking down, and where the next opportunity lies. 15 of our 20 stocks are still in good shape. Our aggressive five? Up 100% in aggregate. We'll also talk trade, tech, and how to keep your capital safe in a world that’s being rewritten.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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