| Ripple Effect — April 30, 2025
If the economy is about 70% consumer spending, then it’s good to periodically check in on consumer health.
The raw data shows the patient is having the equivalent of a heart attack.
Relative to wages, consumers have been spending the highest percentage of their income on personal interest payments – think credit cards and car loans.  Consumers tend to increase their debt then rapidly pull back following a financial crisis – a healthy trend that governments should follow.
Nah, easier for them to print more money and go deeper into debt… until the next financial crisis.
Today’s reading blows prior pre-recession indicators out of the water. A massive pullback from these levels could make today’s GDP read of -0.3% for the first quarter of 2025 look bullish.
-Addison P.S. Tomorrow at 11am EST on Grey Swan Live! Mark Jeftovic will join us to help understand how Bitcoin, with new institutional support, is rapidly being deployed in the global monetary system and what that’ll mean for our Grey Swan investment strategy. Paying members will receive a link prior to the call. Keep an eye out! As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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