| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Tuesday April 1, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 1, 2025
"Bureaucracy defends the status quo long past the time when the quo has lost its status." — Laurence J. Peter
Dear Reader,
We started covering the Greatest Political Experiment of our Time with Joel Bowman, boots on the ground in Buenos Aires, back when the real action was just beginning.
It was late 2023.
Argentina had been enduring economic madness, and a wild-eyed libertarian named Javier Milei — waving a chainsaw like a prophet with power tools — was promising to cut the government down to size.
Milei was officially sworn in on December 10, 2023. Over the past year, he's faced a hostile Congress, an entrenched bureaucracy, widespread protests and violence in the streets.
At the outset, Argentina's inflation rate was approaching 200%. The public still had a healthy dose of socialists begging for the return of price controls and "free" government handouts. So far, he's holding the line. The motosierra isn't ceremonial. It's a mandate. Inflation is down to 2.2% month over month.
We also covered Milei's WEF speech at Davos in January 2024, in which he berated the global elite for their woke hypocrisy, their climate change authoritarianism and accused socialist policies of destroying Argentina.
Biden was still in office. Many readers wondered why we were so interested in political change on the other side of the planet. 
Caption: "No, it can't happen here!" they said.
Turns out, Argentina was the dress rehearsal for what happens when the status quo collapses under its own dead weight… and someone with the guts — or madness — to swing a blade walks on stage.
Today's events in the United States:
Tariff Tremors: 
President Trump's tariff Liberation Day, notably not on April 1, is tomorrow.
The markets have been anxious for a week in anticipation. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 5,611, down 4.6% for the year, but with sentiment at a level that's usually hitting around a 20% bear market.
Meanwhile, the Dow climbed a skosh to 42,001, down a gentler 1.3% ytd. Traders are bracing to see if Trump lights the fuse or defuses the bomb.
AI Air Pockets: 
The real weight on the market this week? A cold shiver running through the red-hot AI sector. The Nasdaq 100 just recorded its worst quarterly drop in nearly three years—down 8.3%—after a couple of warning shots spooked the herd. Data-center buildout may be hitting a wall. Nvidia has plunged 28% since its January high, while the Big Four—Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta—are all down more than 20% from their peaks.
"They were priced for perfection," said Boston Partners' Michael Mullaney. "Which makes them an obvious target for nervous profit-takers."
Translation: the bubble's sweating.
Golden Refuge: 
Conversely, gold has blasted past $3,128 per ounce — up 18% already this year after 2024's 27% climb. Investors aren't just nervous — they're strapping on parachutes. Every time Washington opens its mouth, bullion jumps. Long-time readers know what the dollar's really worth. And, as our research has shown, that gold still has far more room to run.
The Midas Mystery: 
Since November, someone's buying gold like Diocletian was printing denarii — 2,000 metric tons, or 64 million ounces, give or take. That's about a quarter of what the U.S. claims to have in reserve. This isn't Mom and Pop buying coins online. This is a power player — someone with a bunker, a plan, and zero faith in the system.
First-time buyers aren't missing out. Morningstar reports a $11.4 billion increase in physical gold ETFs since the beginning of February.
Elon's Electoral Adventure: 
At a series of town halls yesterday in Wisconsin, Elon Musk called today's Wisconsin Supreme Court race, declaring, "A Supreme Court election in Wisconsin might determine the fate of America" and even "the entire destiny of humanity." What's at stake? The court's pending ruling on whether Democrats and gerrymander districts to increase their chances of gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Musk is backing conservative candidate Brad Schimel with millions in funding and attempted to hand out $1 million checks to two voters — prompting legal challenges from the Wisconsin AG. The state Supreme Court declined to block his revised plan.
Critics accuse Musk of trying to "buy" the election, sparking concerns over billionaire influence in judicial politics. Musk, undeterred, continues to cast the race as a turning point in America's future.
Tesla Takedown: 
Tesla showrooms are under siege in more than 250 cities. The "Tesla Takedown" blends a greatest-hits compilation of progressive street theater. If you're into this sort of thing, you can follow the Cloward-Piven breadcrumbs from Occupy Wall Street through BLM to "From the River to the Sea" — and now add an anti-tech freshener.
Protesters' signs have been... creative, to say the least. Outside Tesla dealerships, you'll see everything from "Musk = Mussolini with Wi-Fi" to "No AI in MY Democracy" and "From the River to the Cybertruck." Some glued themselves to showroom floors; others staged mock electric chair executions using Superchargers.
The whole thing feels more like performance art than political action — half Burning Man, half Kafka novel.
Musk's response? "They're insane. Paid actors." And honestly, in this political environment, who isn't? It all depends on who's footing the bill… and what script they're pushing. Stay tuned. Stay curious. Stay liquid.
More soon,
Addison
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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