| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Monday April 14, 2025 | Ripple Effect — April 14, 2025
Gold is up over 38% in the past year – and 23% year-to-date. The S&P 500? It’s now up less than 5% in the past 12 months, following its recent breakdown.
Not too shabby.
But gold does have plenty of periods where it underperforms. Consider its 2011 peak to 2016 trough. Gold sank from $1,900 to $1,050.
But zoom out even further. Gold doesn’t just rise over time. It’s often been a better bet than stocks.
In the year 2000, we looked at gold’s lackluster price and high stock market valuations, fueled by the dotcom bubble. Our “trade of the decade” was to go long gold and short stocks – specifically the Dow.
That worked out well. Gold rose from under $250 per ounce to over $1,000 in that 10-year period. Stocks? They were having a lost decade, with the 2000 dotcom crash and 2008 great financial crisis knocking shares around.
Since 2000, that trend has continued:  This chart shows that it’s not even close. Even with gold’s sagging performance in the 2010s, stocks never got a chance to catch up. Even with the rise of the Mag 7 and the AI boom.
Gold isn’t just having a moment. It’s showing its safety as paper assets like stocks get whipsawed by changes in inflation, interest rates, and investor fears. And our research suggests that gold still has much higher to run.
-Addison P.S. Please mark your calendar: Thursday, April 17 at 11 a.m., we’ll be hosting Grey Swan Live! for paid members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. This week, we’ll dig into the gold run, the currency rumbles behind it, the bizarre movements in crypto, and what Trump’s tariff regime could really mean for the fate of the U.S. dollar.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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