Folks, it's bad out there... The trade war has evolved. It looks like it'll touch just about every corner of the market.
Here's What the Power Gauge Says in a Collapsing Market
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, it's bad out there...
The trade war has evolved. It looks like it'll touch just about every corner of the market.
And as Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin noted on Friday, unless there's a major change in the coming weeks, this is the sort of situation that could lead to a global recession.
On Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index closed in bear market territory. That means it had fallen more than 20% off its high. Meanwhile, the broad market S&P 500 Index is now down about 18% from its all-time high in February.
Politics aside, this is a terrible outcome for investors. Most folks' portfolios are taking a beating. And as we've discussed several times in recent weeks, investor sentiment is about as bad as it gets.
Worse still, the Power Gauge is flashing a serious warning.
Today, let's take a look at that warning together. And we'll see if there are any bright spots left in this tumbling market...
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The Power Gauge Can Still Find Opportunities Even in an Overall Weak Market
I don't want to sugarcoat this situation. It's rough right now.
The Power Gauge agrees...
None of the 11 top-level sectors that our system tracks earn a "bullish" or better rating. And the same is true for the 21 subsectors.
At the top level, five sectors have zero "bullish" or better stocks in them. And eight subsectors are in the same position.
So, if you're feeling like there's just about nowhere to hide in this market... you're not alone.
Right now, nearly everything is in freefall.
But the Power Gauge still sees some bright spots...
As regular readers know, we use the SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY) to measure the broad market. And right now, 19 stocks in this fund earn a "bullish" or "very bullish" rating.
For example, I'm seeing well-known consumer staples names like Kroger (KR) and Dollar General (DG) pop up in "bullish" territory. That makes sense. Even when the economy weakens, demand for food and basic consumer products doesn't change much.
Consolidated Edison (ED) is another stock with a positive rating. Even with its recent drop, the $37 billion utility company is still up about 18% this year.
The stock recently shifted into "bullish" territory. But earlier this year, it had already started dramatically outperforming the S&P 500 on our proprietary measure. You can see it clearly on the chart...
You'll also notice on the chart that the Chaikin Money Flow indicator has been lit up green for most of this year. This tells us that the buying patterns associated with Wall Street's "smart money" have been strong.
In other words, we can see clearly that Wall Street is moving into defensive names like this. Even the big shots are looking for shelter right now.
The point is simple... We're in a tumultuous time.
Right now, our job is to use the Power Gauge to find the bright spots. And beyond that, we need to stay disciplined.
No one knows exactly how long this will last. And it's possible for single names to take a massive beating. Just look at a big name like Tesla (TSLA)... It's down more than 40% this year.
So follow your stop losses. Continue to look for opportunities. And be ready to act when conditions change.
With the help of the Power Gauge, we'll get through this tough market environment together.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.95%
0
21
9
S&P 500
-0.18%
19
316
165
Nasdaq
+0.24%
2
65
33
Small Caps
-0.91%
93
1288
513
Bonds
-3.02%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are strongly Bearish. Major indexes have all turned strongly bearish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Staples
-5.04%
Utilities
-6.92%
Health Care
-7.9%
Consumer Discretionary
-8.52%
Real Estate
-9.15%
Communication
-9.43%
Industrials
-10.44%
Materials
-10.87%
Information Technology
-11.15%
Financial
-11.48%
Energy
-16.27%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Equipment Services
3
54
7
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Equipment subsector (XHE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -1.58%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #5 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 9 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
PRCT
PROCEPT BioRobotics
ZBH
Zimmer Biomet Holdin
CNMD
CONMED Corporation
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
SMCI
+10.66%
DLTR
+7.83%
TPL
+6.94%
TER
+6.04%
ANET
+5.9%
Losers
TSCO
-5.82%
SWK
-5.74%
GPC
-5.54%
DHI
-5.52%
PHM
-5.04%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000.
* * * *
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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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