| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Thursday April 3, 2025 | Ripple Effect — April 3, 2025
William McKinley led the fight for tariffs. As a member of the House of Representatives, his Tariff Act of 1890 is known as the McKinley Tariff for its 450 amendments that raised duties across all imports to 49.5%.
Following President Trump's announcement yesterday, the average tariff rate in the U.S. rose from about 10% to 29%... overnight. And that's after tariff rates were less than 5% before Trump's second term started. 
William McKinley was able to parlay his success in Congress to take the White House.
Smoot and Hawley, behind the tariffs in the 1930s, lost their office. Of course, as we famously know from Ben Stien in Ferris Bueller's Day Off, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were the wrong idea at the wrong time.
We'll see which path these new tariffs take… and how comfortable the GOP is with its slim House majority right now.
Betting markets are already moving heavily against them. And the odds of a recession in the next 12 months just jumped from 35% to 50% … a flip of a coin.
Addison
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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