| Swan Dive — April 25, 2025 The Real Trade War Addison Wiggin For a moment, forget semiconductors and TikTok bans.
The real trade war for most isn’t in the South China Sea — it’s in your brokerage account. It’s a philosophical split between the world we built after WWII and the messy new one Trump’s blasting into existence with tariff threats, central bank squabbles, and a “who needs allies if they don’t pay?” attitude.
The controlled demolition of the 80-year global order is a laborious task. And one that’s quite foreign to Americans who are hooked on instant gratification as a way of life. Especially when the big man in charge seems to have forgotten to hand out the blueprints.
The global headlines are full of hand wringing over Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, NATO, Bretton Woods, dollar hegemony, the Taiwan Strait — each situation being addressed with the precision of a backhoe at a garden party.
Markets pretend not to notice. For all the dizzying array of headlines, U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly this week with the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge, surging 5.4% — its best weekly performance of the year.
The S&P 500 climbed 3.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.4%, both buoyed by investor optimism over potential tariff rollbacks and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. And that’s after Monday’s big drop.
Granted, all three indices remain in negative territory for the year, reflecting ongoing concerns over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Since you’re managing your own money, you’d be wise to assume the dust cloud is still heading your way.
We begin today’s Swan Dive with an obscure 7-year Treasury auction yesterday that met with less than desirable results. Near the end, we observe that Omaha’s Mr. Buffett is sitting on a $325 billion stake in short-term paper – more than the Fed itself. It’s like the sage knows what’s coming next. Maybe he does. Maybe you do too. 📉 Treasury Trouble: IOUs No One Wants This week’s 7-year Treasury auction flopped — again. Investors demanded higher yields, which is Wall Street’s polite way of saying “we’d rather not.” Foreign buyers are stepping back, and the Fed’s left holding the bag. If Powell steps in to monetize it, don’t call it QE — call it what it is: inflation fuel. Translation: If China’s out, Powell’s in. And if Powell’s in, your grocery bill’s going up.
 Under the surface of the U.S. financial system…
One of the biggest stock market events in 25 years is rapidly unfolding…
The economist who predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis says it will be: "The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime."
Starting May 21st — your favorite tech stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and hundreds more could come crashing down…
Cutting the entire tech market by HALF – virtually overnight.
This is why the world’s financial elite are panic-selling stocks at the fastest rate in a decade.
To help you prepare…
Our guest expert is giving you his #1 stock to profit – 100% FREE. 
🛒 Grocery Store Guerrilla Warfare PepsiCo slashed guidance. Nestlé is raising prices and losing customers. Unilever is squeezing revenue from price hikes, but volumes are down across the board. Even Danone’s trying to ride the weight-loss drug wave — because apparently yogurt isn’t cutting it. Consumers? Out of patience. And cash. You feel it every time you check out. Wall Street hasn’t priced that in. Yet. 🌾 Patchwork Trade: Chickens and Chardonnay China halted U.S. wheat and pork imports. Brazil and Argentina stepped in. Japan offered to buy American soybeans — to be polite. France wants its wine exempt from tariffs. And back home? Americans are reviving a timeless trade workaround: backyard chickens. Modern trade looks less like the Silk Road, more like a rural detour through the feed store. 🔁 He Said, Xi Said One day, it’s 145% tariffs. The next, Trump’s mulling cuts. What changed? A quiet meeting with execs from Walmart and Home Depot. They likely explained what your wallet already knows: tariffs raise prices.
For their part, China says it is not having any talks with the U.S. and that the U.S. should "stop creating confusion." Yet for the last 3 days, President Trump has said multiple times that there are ongoing daily negotiations with China.
Asked who the Chinese negotiators were, Trump replied: “It doesn’t matter who ‘they’ are,” Trump says. We’re meant to just trust in the process. 🏛️ Wall Street’s Tech House of Cards Bank of America issued its own warning to constituents: Don’t trust the process, and “sell into rallies.” Their reasoning: If you strip tech from the S&P and the rest of the market is flatlining. P&G alone says tariffs will cost them $1.5 billion this year — and guess who’s picking up the tab? 🪙 Crypto Deregulation: Every Desk for Itself The Fed, OCC, and FDIC just rolled back crypto compliance rules. Banks no longer need pre-approval to dive in. Translation: it’s open season on the blockchain. Meanwhile, Senator David McCormick — tasked with overseeing digital assets — just disclosed six-figure bitcoin ETF trades. Regulator or bagholder? Washington can’t tell the difference. ☁️ Move Over Musk, It’s Google and Palantir’s Turn Google Cloud and Palantir are teaming up to expand FedStart — an AI-powered analytics tool for U.S. agencies. It’s a clever pivot if you can stomach Palantir’s lofty valuation. Big data meets big brother, with a side of Beltway gravy.
Amid the turmoil playing out across headlines, the main act we should be keeping our eye on is the collapse of trust: in policy, in markets, in the idea that anyone is minding the store.
From Powell’s debt trap to Trump’s trade improv to crypto’s regulatory Wild West, we’re not witnessing strategy, per se — but chaos at its finest. It’s entertaining, if you’ve got the stomach for creative destruction.
The postwar playbook is gone. What replaces it? Still unclear. But if you’re holding the bag — whether bonds, stocks, or just a shopping list — you’d better be asking the question.
– Addison 📺 P.S. for Paid Members: Grey Swan Live! is up on our site. Yesterday, we unpacked what’s happening behind the headlines with Shad Marquitz. Shad deftly guided us through gold and silver, central banks, energy for AI, oil, natural gas, uranium, nuclear, and more. Plus, a comprehensive review of bargains in the natural resource markets (including a slew of ticker symbols to look at!) It’s a must-watch.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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