Hey there, Nil!
Markets are facing a challenging menu to start the week after China warned it would "resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures" against countries that strike deals with the US at its expense. As futures slide and gold reaches record heights, let's dig into this week's market meal featuring a busy earnings calendar headlined by Tesla! Plus, try your luck and win a $50 Amazon Gift Card! 🎁
- Dan
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- China warns against trade deals with the US at its expense, threatening "reciprocal countermeasures"
- China sanctions US congress members, officials, and NGO heads amid escalating tensions
- Russia launches missiles and drones as Putin's Easter ceasefire ends
- Pentagon chief Hegseth shared sensitive Yemen war plans in a second Signal chat
- Vice President Vance arrives in India for talks with Modi under US tariffs
- Norway's Prime Minister to meet Trump on Thursday
- South Korea's presidential frontrunner vows to address 'Korea Discount'
- Pope Francis dies aged 88, one day after Easter, Europe indexes closed
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| Chef's Pick: Tesla (TSLA) |
Recap (NASDAQ: TTWO) Fueled by growing GTA 6 hype. CEO Strauss Zelnick confirmed strong progress ahead of its expected fall launch, which analysts say could generate up to $2.98B in year-one sales. With a 30–40% adoption rate across 106M+ consoles, GTA 6 may boost gross profits by 30%. While the stock looks expensive now, projected 200% EPS growth by 2026 could justify the valuation. |
TESLA (NASDAQ: TSLA) Tesla shares are down 3.7% premarket and nearly 40% year-to-date ahead of Tuesday's crucial earnings. The EV giant is under pressure after a 13% drop in Q1 deliveries and reports it may delay its lower-cost Model Y to 2026. Competitor BYD is surging with cheaper models and new tech, threatening Tesla's edge. Analysts call this a "code red" moment, urging Elon Musk to refocus. With profitability hit by price wars and market share slipping, Tesla's valuation faces a major test this week. |
China Trade Backlash Protection: China's warning about "resolute countermeasures" against countries striking US trade deals threatens global supply chains. Reduce exposure to companies heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing while focusing on sectors with domestic production capabilities. Gold's Safe Haven Appeal: With gold hitting a record $3,395.50 amid dollar weakness and trade tensions, consider portfolio allocation to precious metals ETFs as a hedge against continuing market volatility and potential currency devaluation. Foreign Stock Diversification Strategy: International stocks are outperforming US equities in 2025, with Fidelity Zero International Index up 4.8% vs Fidelity Zero Total Market Index down 10%. Boost foreign stock allocation toward 35-40% of equity holdings to benefit from lower valuations. Powell Independence Protection: Trump's reported consideration of firing Fed Chair Powell has introduced new uncertainty. Position conservatively, as Supreme Court decisions could impact Fed independence, potentially leading to politically motivated monetary policy. Earnings Disappointment Insurance: Major reports this week (Tesla, Alphabet, Verizon) could provide clarity on tariff impacts. Maintaining higher cash positions until earnings season reveals how companies navigate trade headwinds and resulting economic uncertainty. |
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Privacy & Security Watch: The Cyber Scam 'Cancer' No One's Stopping — Yet
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How do you fight a billion-dollar scam machine that keeps moving, mutating… and growing? According to a chilling new report from the United Nations, Asia's cyber scam syndicates — once thought to be contained in Southeast Asia — are now going global. As authorities raid compounds in places like Myanmar and Cambodia, these operations simply migrate. South America. Africa. Eastern Europe. No borders. No limits. Behind it all? Sophisticated networks exploiting corruption and weak governance, forcing trafficked workers to operate massive scam farms, and generating tens of billions in profits. The U.S. alone lost over $5.6 billion to crypto scams in 2023, much of it tied to this shadow empire. UN officials warn we've hit a global "inflection point." These syndicates are forging partnerships with drug cartels, expanding laundering networks, and diversifying their ranks with workers from over 50 countries. The question is: if this industry spreads like cancer… who's really in control? |
- FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
- CB Leading Index m/m
Fed Independence Concerns: - Trump reportedly considering removing Fed Chair Powell
- Supreme Court petition challenging a 90-year-old precedent limiting presidential power
- Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee warned against curtailing the monetary authority's independence
- Futures markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts by year-end
Major earnings expected on Tuesday: - Tesla: All eyes on EV maker amid falling deliveries and potential model delays
- GE Aerospace, Verizon, Intuitive Surgical, RTX, Danaher
- Lockheed Martin, Elevance Health, Moody's, Northrop Grumman
- 3M, Capital One, Kimberly-Clark, MSCI, Baker Hughes
- Plus: PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Synchrony Financial, Steel Dynamics
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Gold Hits Record as Dollar Sags: Bullion roared above $3,390 an ounce as the US currency fell to its lowest since late 2023. Safe-haven demand is driven by Trump's Fed criticism and ongoing trade concerns. Tariff Deal Talks to Dominate IMF-World Bank Meetings: Hundreds of global finance ministers are descending on Washington this week with the primary focus on negotiating trade deals. One-on-one meetings are expected as countries seek to avoid harsh tariffs. Supreme Court Could Make Powell Firing Easier: Trump has asked the Supreme Court in emergency petition to endorse firing chairs of other independent agencies. If 90-year-old precedent falls, removing Fed Chair would become legally simpler. South Korean Stocks May Join Developed Market Index: Financial Services Commission Vice Chairman Kim So-young said "very high possibility" of inclusion soon. Potential catalyst for increased capital flows to Korean equities. Netflix Shares Rise on Resilient Outlook: Streaming giant's stock gained as upbeat annual revenue guidance reassured investors about weathering economic headwinds. Co-CEO emphasized the entertainment sector's proven resilience during downturns. LG Energy Solution Exits Indonesia EV Battery Project: South Korean battery maker formally withdrew from $8.45 billion investment. Major setback for Indonesia's EV manufacturing ambitions. US Stocks Log Third Weekly Loss: All three major indexes recorded negative weeks, with the Dow off 2.7%, the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and the Nasdaq sliding 2.6%. The market has been closed since Thursday for the Good Friday holiday. Trump Sees Quick Timeline for Trade Deals: President said China deal could be ready in "three or four weeks," while advisor Navarro suggested "90 deals in 90 days" possible. Analysts caution that typical negotiations take 18 months on average. Peterson Institute Analysis Shows Trade Deal Reality: Free trade agreements historically took 18 months to negotiate and nearly four years to fully implement. Interim agreements are more likely in the near term. Foreign Stocks Outperforming US Market: Fidelity Zero International Index fund up 4.8% this year, while US equivalent down 10%. Vanguard projects foreign equities to return 7.1-9.1% annually over the next decade versus 2.9-4.9% for US stocks. Trump Tariff Plan Called "Seismic Wave": SPI Asset Management warns of lasting impact on global economy: "Policy predictability is shot. Trade partners will rethink exposure. Investors will build in a U.S. political volatility premium." Over 100 S&P 500 Companies Report This Week: Earnings season intensifies with 22% of index components releasing results. Tesla and Alphabet headlining a busy calendar that could provide tariff impact clarity. |
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Netflix (NFLX ⬆️ 2.9%): Streaming giant served up delicious Q1 earnings of $6.61/share, easily beating $5.57 estimates. Projected Q2 profit of $7.03/share tops $6.25 consensus. Co-CEO Peters noted the entertainment sector has proven resilient during economic downturns. Tesla (TSLA ⬇️ 3.7%): EV maker falling ahead of Tuesday's critical earnings report as Reuters reported a potential delay of the lower-priced Model Y to 2026. Barclays cut price target to $275 from $325, noting "confusing setup" in earnings amid delivery challenges. Shares are down 40% this year. UnitedHealth (UNH ⬇️ 0.5%): Health insurer extending losses after Thursday's 22% plunge (worst since 1998) on missed Q1 earnings and slashed outlook. The company cited increased Medicare Advantage utilization rates for physician and outpatient services. Capital One (COF ⬆️ 3%): Financial services firm gaining after the Office of the Comptroller granted conditional approval for its $35.3B acquisition of Discover Financial Services. Discover Financial (DFS ⬆️ 5.3%): Credit card company jumping on the conditional regulatory approval of Capital One's acquisition offer. Ford (F ⬇️ 1.5%): The Automaker halted shipments of F-150 Raptors, Mustangs, Broncos, and Lincoln Navigators to China to avoid retaliatory tariffs. A company spokesperson confirmed "adjusted exports from the U.S. to China in light of current tariffs." Eli Lilly (LLY ⬇️ 0.4%): Pharmaceutical company retreating slightly after Thursday's 14% surge on positive weight-loss pill trial results. Patients on the highest dose lost an average of 7.9% of weight after 40 weeks. The CEO vowed to manufacture the pill in the U.S. TechTarget (TTGT ⬇️ 9%): This digital marketing firm is dropping after receiving a Nasdaq deficiency notice for failing to file its 10-K in a timely manner. The company has 60 days to submit a compliance plan and expects to file by April 29. |
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ETF Gainers: Defiance Daily Target 2X Long IONQ ETF (⬆️ 9.77%) GraniteShares 2x Long UBER Daily ETF (⬆️ 6.02%) GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (⬆️ 6.02%) Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOFI ETF (⬆️ 5.95%) Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF (⬆️ 4.56%)
ETF Losers: Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (⬇️ 6.06%) Leverage Shares 2X Long NVDA Daily ETF (⬇️ 6.03%) GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (⬇️ 5.99%) Direxion Daily AVGO Bull 2X Shares (⬇️ 4.33%) Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AVGO ETF (⬇️ 4.29%)
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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources: - China sanctions U.S. Congress members, officials, NGO heads – Reuters
- China opposes any deals between U.S. and other nations at its expense – Reuters
- Kyiv, half of Ukraine under air raid alerts hours after one-day Russia ceasefire – Reuters
- Defense chief Hegseth shared war plans in second Signal chat, NYT reports – Reuters
- India's Modi to host JD Vance in Delhi under U.S. tariffs shadow – Reuters
- Trump hints at new free trade agreement, but with tariffs – Barron's
- Global portfolio allocation shifts as market volatility rises – Barron's
- U.S. stock futures fall after another losing week on Wall Street – MarketWatch
- Tesla, Alphabet, Verizon, Chipotle, IBM, Boeing: Stocks to watch – Barron's
- Stocks and futures to watch this week – Barron's
- Biggest stock movers Monday – Seeking Alpha
- China warns against U.S. side deals, threatens retaliation – Seeking Alpha
- Gold hits record as dollar sags – Yahoo Finance
- Tariff deal talks dominate IMF meetings – Yahoo Finance
- Trump's push against Powell is the latest pressure campaign – Yahoo Finance
- Analysis: Nintendo faces trade war risks – Yahoo Finance
- Can Trump fire Powell? The Supreme Court could make it easier – Yahoo Finance
- Korea stock market likely to join global rebound – Yahoo Finance
- Netflix shares rise on rosy outlook – Yahoo Finance
- South Korea's LG Energy Solution sees growth potential – Yahoo Finance
- Europe remains closed for Easter – Seeking Alpha
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