| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Tuesday April 15, 2025 | Ripple Effect — April 15, 2025
When stocks hit new highs in February, a slew of talking heads pointed out how Warren Buffett was out of touch.
Buffett is notoriously tech-averse, although he made a big exception for Apple in the 2010s. That became his largest position, which he started taking profits on in 2024.
With that cash, Buffett has been a proponent of the “T-bill and chill” approach to investing. His cash position now tops $300 billion.  In a world where the U.S. dollar’s value is subject to change – rapid change – and as it loses its reserve value, cash seems like an odd holding.
However, in market turmoil, cash gives you options. While dollars lose value over time, in a fearful market, other assets—stocks—will decline faster.
That creates big buying opportunities. And Buffett is ready for his next major acquisition.
Thanks to the current market selloff, Buffett could pay cash for over 95% of all companies in the S&P 500.
Berkshire itself is the 7th largest S&P 500 company by market cap, with a $1.15 trillion valuation. That makes Berkshire’s cash position about 30% of its total size. Typically, Buffett has a 15-20% cash buffer.
Currently, Berkshire’s cash holdings allow it to buy the 476 smallest companies that make up the S&P 500. Exactly what we’ve been fearful of ourselves: a handful of US-listed companies, primarily Big Tech, have been driving the global stock market. Up and down.
With interest rates staying stubbornly high, Buffett may yet sit on this large holding and let it roll over for a few more quarters. “When he starts buying,” Andrew remarked yesterday, “it may signal the bear market is over.”
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This week, we'll dive into the gold rally and what it signals for global finance with Jason Cozens, CEO of GlintPay.com.
Jason is also on the front lines of a domestic effort to restore “constitutional” gold at the U.S. state level. Join us. We’ll explain what all that means! This one matters.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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