| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Thursday April 17, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 17, 2025 When Independence Goes on Trial Addison Wiggin Yesterday morning started out great for the stock market...
Then Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took the podium at the Economic Club of Chicago, dashing all hopes for a quick rate cut or two in the immediate futures, and sending stocks tumbling lower.
Powell even noted that the market was “doing its job,” and that many funds were likely deleveraging right now.
That’s Wall Street-speak for “we’re letting the market sort itself out, and the central bank isn’t stepping in to stop a market plunge quite yet.”
But… the dollar’s already fragile. Treasurys saw a dramatic selloff just last week. Gold is on a tear.
And with the market already reaching a fever pitch of uncertainty due to tariffs and chip bans, the judiciary is about to add a whole new layer of chaos to the mix…
Because the fate of the Fed’s independence is now on the Supreme Court’s docket.
The Federal Reserve is hardly a popular entity as far as most Americans are concerned. And the Fed only has itself to blame for that.
“It is a sobering fact,” former Fed chair Paul Volcker once said, “that the prominence of central banks in this century has coincided with a general tendency towards more inflation, not less.” And continued: [I]f the overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the nineteenth-century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency boards, or even with 'free banking.'
The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy. If the Supreme Court decides to overturn the Humphrey’s Executor decision—a 1935 ruling that protects agency heads from being fired without cause—then Trump will be free to tell Powell “you’re fired.”
The decision would effectively turn the Fed (a nebulous, not-quite-government entity) into an extension of the judiciary branch. What we now know as the Federal Reserve would be put down in history next to America’s other two (failed) attempts at central banking.
After that? Perhaps we can expect monetary policy to be set by late-night tweets—and rate cuts to be announced via Truth Social? 📉 Powell’s Warning Hits Hard Markets were already wobbly starting to wobble yesterday when Nvidia and AMD dropped bombshells about their tariff-related losses. But Powell’s speech clearly shook up the investing world…
He called the current moment a “challenging scenario,” with tariffs complicating the Fed’s balancing act between inflation and employment.
Translation: The Fed doesn’t really have the tools in its toolbox to fix tariff-driven inflation.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is prepping its seventh rate cut. Trump’s tariffs have hammered global trade and darkened Europe's economic forecast.
Europe is getting a lot of attention… playing its own cards during the bipolar U.S. and China trade standoff.
A secret meeting just took place in Las Vegas.
Inside exclusive sky suites at the Aria Resort, Wall Street executives gathered behind closed doors.
They aren't warning the public. They're positioning themselves for what's coming.
By the time you see the headlines, it will be too late. But there's still time — if you act now.
Watch this controversial video now, and send it to everyone you know.
💸 Are Foreign Buyers Ghosting Treasurys? Later today, a quiet Treasury report may not be so quiet.
It’s expected to show a drop in foreign demand for U.S. debt — something traders have long suspected. If confirmed, it will underscore the market’s biggest unspoken fear: the world isn’t buying the "full faith and credit" pitch anymore.
Which is exactly the fear that put the Trump tariffs on a 90-day hold last week. 🇯🇵 Japan Buys Time Trump says negotiators made “big progress” with Japan, easing fears of new tariffs. The Nikkei 225 popped. Japan wants to avoid a stronger yen and sidestep the next round of tariff roulette. For now, they’re still at the table.
Japan is just one piece in a complex puzzle.
A “90 deals in 90 days” target for bespoke trade deals between the U.S. and its biggest partners is a tall order. Here are more… 💣 The Chips Melt Down President Trump’s latest strike in the trade war targets AI hardware. Nvidia’s H20 chip and AMD’s MI308 are now banned from sale to China.
Nvidia said the move will cost it $5.5 billion—worse, the H20 was specifically designed to meet earlier export rules.
AMD expects an $800 million write-down. ASML, the industry’s barometer, saw its net bookings plummet to $4.48 billion, down from $8.1 billion in Q4 2024.
Nvidia sank 6.87%, AMD lost 7.35%, and ASML dropped 7.06%. And it wasn’t just the U.S.—Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC all finished in the red. 🔋 Minerals, Medicines, and More May Get Tariffs Just to keep markets guessing, Trump also ordered a probe into new tariffs on critical minerals—nickel, cobalt, and other metals that power the AI and EV sectors. Pharma and semiconductor imports are on the watchlist too. This isn’t trade policy. It’s economic shock therapy. 🔄 AI’s Glow Fades AI stocks have carried the bull market for two years, but cracks are showing. Morningstar analyst Brian Colello downgraded Nvidia’s fair value from $130 to $125, citing “very high uncertainty” and a trade war that’s now embedded in every AI earnings forecast. “China is just one of many moving pieces,” he wrote.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives went further: “The financial impact is relatively small, but the strategic blow is the focus of the market… Nvidia now has massive blockades going after the China market in the middle of this raging U.S./China tariff battle.” 📈 Markets Today After Wednesday’s tariff tantrum, futures rebounded modestly.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) gave bulls a glimmer of hope, reaffirming 2025 guidance and predicting AI revenue will double. The stock rose 3.8% in U.S. premarket. But all eyes now turn to entertainment: Netflix earnings after the close. Also on deck, Blackstone, American Express, and Schwab.
If the Fed loses its independence, that’ll be even more of a nightmare. Every rate decision becomes a referendum on whoever’s in office. The market already trades on vibes; we don’t need monetary policy set by tweet, too. But that’s precisely the way Trump said he’d like to go.
- Addison P.S. Grey Swan Live! kicks off today at 11am ET. I’ll be joined by Jason Cozens, CEO of GlintPay.com, a revolution in the gold market, why gold keeps breaking records, and what that tells us about the future of money when no one trusts the system holding it.
Jason will also fill us in on the legislative effort to restore “constitutional money” to the States. You’ll want to be there.
Paid readers, please check your inbox for your invite link prior to 11am EST.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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