05/06/2025 | Unsubscribe |
Mission: Ultimate Alerts was designed for active and passive US investors to notify you about short-term and long-term risks and opportunities. Our mission is to provide you with an objective and historically accurate understanding of financial markets, macroeconomics and how it all affects your saving and investing. |
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Good Morning! |
Here are some important charts and ideas capturing the latest trends in US markets to help you understand what is happening from multiple different perspectives: |
 | Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart |  |
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Bank of America says the S&P 500 is expensive on 19 out of 20 different valuation metrics | |  | | | 1:06 PM • Apr 28, 2025 | | | | | | 516 Likes 119 Retweets | 34 Replies |
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🔍 S&P 500 Valuations Are Stretched Across the Board |
🧮 19 of 20 metrics = Overvalued: Broad-based deviation from historical norms. 📈 Shiller PE: +99% Above Avg: Historically signals weaker long-term returns. 📊 Buffett Indicator: +135% Above Avg: Market cap far exceeds GDP. 🏷️ Pricey on Cash Flow & Sales: P/FCF and EV/Sales well above average.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
⚠️ Expect Lower Future Returns: High entry valuations = weak long-term upside. 📉 Bigger Drawdown Risk: High valuations = less cushion in selloffs. ⛑️ Weak Risk-Adjusted Returns: Not ideal for new capital deployment. 🛡️ Rebalance Exposure: Consider undervalued global equities, gold (depending on your time-frame), or inflation-linked assets. ⏳ Buy Pullbacks, Not Highs: Be valuation-aware despite short-term strength.
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🔁 Alternative Views to Consider |
🟢 "New Normal" for Tech?: AI-driven growth may justify high multiples. 🟠 Lower Rates Support Valuations: Falling yields reduce discount rate pressure. 🔵 Index Skew Matters: Megacaps distort — median stocks may be fairly valued.
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 | Craig Shapiro @ces921 | |
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Dallas Fed Regional PMI Survey: Pretty Awful Definition of Stagflation: New Orders plummeting while Prices Paid rip higher | |   | | | 2:34 PM • Apr 28, 2025 | | | | | | 197 Likes 56 Retweets | 18 Replies |
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🔍 Stagflation Risk Emerging: Prices Up, Orders Down |
📈 Raw Material Costs Jumped: Prices Paid hit 48.4 in April — the highest since 2022. 📉 New Orders Collapsing: Regional PMIs show weakening demand. ⚠️ Classic Stagflation Setup: Rising costs + slowing growth = margin risk.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
🚫 Profit Squeeze Ahead: Companies without pricing power will feel the margin pinch. 🔄 Avoid Cyclicals: Manufacturing and materials are especially vulnerable. 🛡️ Seek Resilience: Favor firms with strong pricing power — e.g., healthcare, utilities, subscription tech. 📉 Watch Bond Exposure: Sticky inflation hurts duration — TIPS or short-duration bonds may help.
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🔁 Alternative Takes to Consider |
🟢 Temporary Spike?: Tariffs or supply shocks may fade, not actual inflation. 🟠 Fed May Stay Dovish: If growth slows, policy support could buffer markets. 🔵 Market May Already Price This In: Fear-driven pullbacks can create opportunity.
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 | Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook | |
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"It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal." - Apollo Sløk | |  | | | 8:00 AM • Apr 28, 2025 | | | | | | 90 Likes 21 Retweets | 12 Replies |
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🔍 Trade Deals Move Slowly — Tariff Relief Won't Be Quick |
📊 Avg. Timeline: 18 months to sign, 45 months to implement a U.S. trade deal. 🚫 Fast Tariffs, Slow Reversals: Policy shocks hit quickly, but fixes drag. 🧭 Wide Variability: Panama took 102 months, Jordan just 18 — high uncertainty = persistent risk.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
⚠️ No Quick Fix: Tariff pain may persist well into 2026+. 🏭 Avoid Exposed Sectors: Industrials, semis, logistics, autos at risk. 📉 Lingering Earnings Pressure: Multinationals won't rebound fast. 🔍 Go Domestic: Favor sectors tied to U.S. demand — utilities, healthcare, staples.
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🔁 Alternative Views to Consider |
🟢 Political Pause Possible: Tariffs may ease before elections, even without formal deals. 🟠 Markets Front-Run Policy: Signals can move stocks before paperwork catches up. 🔴 Geopolitical Drag = Safe Haven Flows: Could boost USD, Treasuries, or insulated markets.
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 | Warren Pies @WarrenPies | |
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In our view, mkt bottoms have 2 components:
1) Depressed positioning/sentiment AND
2) Technical confirmation (e.g. retest lows, breadth thrust, etc) So far, we don't have the technical confirmation (close), but sentiment/positioning is washed (vol-target exposure - chart below) | |  | | | 4:32 PM • Apr 25, 2025 | | | | | | 567 Likes 86 Retweets | 60 Replies |
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🔍 Systematic Funds Are De-Risked to Extreme Lows |
📉 Equity Exposure ≈ 20%: Lowest since the COVID crash and late 2018 — below even August 2024's reset (~50%). 📊 Historic Washout: Sign of deep risk aversion — systematic funds not supporting the market yet. 📐 Bottom Zone Reached: Past lows formed in the 25–40% range, but no technical confirmation yet.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
⚠️ Dip-Buyers Absent: Vol-linked funds still in sell mode — near-term pressure may persist. 📉 Fully Allocated? Brace for Volatility: Markets may lack institutional buying support in the short term. 🛒 Under-Allocated? Start Nibbling: Historically, these washout zones precede strong rebounds. 🧯 Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain: If technicals confirm, upside can be significant (a lot of this could have already happened).
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🔁 Alternative Views to Weigh |
🟢 Sentiment Near Max Pessimism: Even mild good news could spark a sharp rally. 🟠 No Retest Yet: Capitulation or second leg down may still be ahead. 🔴 Volatility Can Linger: Post-crash churn (like 2020) could delay a clean recovery.
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 | Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS | |
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Correlations among U.S. stocks, bonds, dollar at the highest level since at least 2019–Piper Sandler | |  | | | 3:30 PM • Apr 27, 2025 | | | | | | 191 Likes 48 Retweets | 20 Replies |
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🔍 Asset Correlations Are Spiking — Diversification at Risk |
📈 Correlations Near +0.3: Highest since 2019 (and 2020) — stocks, bonds, and the dollar moving together. 🔗 Typical offsets breaking down: Normally, uncorrelated assets are now aligned. 🔄 Diversification Benefits Fading: Classic portfolio buffers may not work.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
⚠️ Diversification Weakness: 60/40 portfolios could see simultaneous drawdowns. 💸 Volatility Risk Rising: High correlation = stress in the system (e.g., inflation, Fed policy). 🛡️ Time for Alternatives: Consider gold, cash, commodities, or volatility hedges. Use tactical or risk-parity strategies.
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🔁 Alternative Views to Consider |
🟢 Could Normalize Soon: Fed clarity or geopolitical calm may reset correlations. 🟠 One Narrative Driving All Trades: Pivot bets and macro alignment fueling synchronized moves. 🧠 Setup for Rotation: Elevated correlation may precede sharp dispersion and new winners.
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 | CH @Econimica | |
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and on and on it goes... | |  | | | 3:58 AM • Apr 30, 2025 | | | | | | 17 Likes 7 Retweets | 0 Replies |
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📊 U.S. Housing Surges Ahead of Population Growth |
🏘️ Record Housing Ratio: 148M housing units vs. 342M people = 43.3% ratio — highest ever, above 2008 bubble peak (42.8%). 🔼 Since 2000: Housing units +28%, population +21%. 🔁 Full Recovery Post-2008: Housing-per-capita now exceeds pre-crisis highs.
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💼 What This Could Mean for You |
🏠 Oversupply Risk Rising: Softening demand + high rates may lead to gluts in some regions. 📉 Home Price Pressure: Growth may slow or reverse in overbuilt markets. 💡 Invest Selectively: Focus on tight-supply, high-demand areas. 📊 CPI Impact: Shelter inflation may ease in 2025–2026.
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🔁 Alternative Views to Consider |
🟢 "Shadow Demand" May Absorb Supply: Millennials forming households late. 🟠 Not All Units Are Usable: Vacancies, second homes distort availability. 🔵 Local Trends Matter: Migration + zoning can still support prices regionally.
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