Mondays are usually calm days in Barcelona. But during a recent trip, I experienced something truly memorable... It was a little after 1 p.m., and I was working from my hotel room.
A 'Boots on the Ground' Lesson From Spain's Big Blackout
By Joe Austin, senior analyst, Chaikin Analytics
Mondays are usually calm days in Barcelona. But during a recent trip, I experienced something truly memorable...
It was a little after 1 p.m., and I was working from my hotel room. I had my windows open, with a gentle breeze blowing through my room.
Then of the blue, my computer beeped. That meant it was almost out of power. It seemed odd, since I knew I had plugged it in.
What I didn't know was that, about an hour earlier, most of the Iberian Peninsula had lost power.
The Iberian Peninsula is more than just Spain. It also includes Portugal and a small part of southern France. It's bigger than California and home to nearly 60 million people.
And there I sat, comfortable in my room... But Spain and Portugal were in chaos.
Across the peninsula, millions of people didn't have power. Airports were shuttered, leaving about 80,000 passengers stranded.
Worse, trains in Spain are mostly electric... so things from the metro systems in the large cities to the Renfe (Spain's version of Amtrak) were dead on their tracks.
When I went for a walk outside, traffic seemed normal. But businesses were selling what fresh food they had and started closing.
Near my hotel, a crowd had gathered outside a bar. The bar had a battery-operated FM radio, which I later learned is something few Spaniards still own.
That meant this group had news. You see, mobile networks weren't prepared for the power outage... And the phone system failed as well.
I continued on my walk, hoping to find a restaurant open with food.
Eventually I did... but I couldn't eat unless I had cash. The banking system, including credit-card payments and cash machines, was also down.
I spent my last 26 euros on a good meal. But the server and I carefully watched what I ordered to make sure I had enough cash to pay.
By the time I began walking back to my hotel, some streetlights came back on. But other streets were still pitch black. And even a seasoned traveler like me felt nervous in that urban darkness.
I went to bed. And shortly after midnight, the power came back on.
Now, the company that operates the national electricity grid in Spain ruled out a cyberattack. But the exact causes of the outage are still under investigation. So there's no full explanation for the outage yet.
Meanwhile, the whole experience got me thinking about the power grid back here in the U.S...
Amid increasing strain on our nation's electrical grid and with a new administration in the White House, reliable electricity will be a big, long-term trend...
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America Needs Reliable Electricity More Than Ever
At its core, an electrical grid is the infrastructure that facilitates the generation and distribution of electricity to end users.
Put simply, the grid keeps life as we know it going.
However, here in the U.S., a majority of the system was built as early as the 1960s.
Sure, the system has seen improvements over the years. But it's old. And it's struggling to meet the growing electricity demands.
About 70% of transmission lines are more than 25 years old. They're approaching the end of their life.
It's tempting to think that a blackout on the scale of Spain and Portugal could never happen here. But the U.S. grid is more fragile than you might think...
Since 1970, our population has grown by nearly 150 million people. It's a more than 70% increase in about 55 years. Over the same span, electricity consumption has grown by more than 40%.
And we're starting to see the strain on our grid create real problems.
You might remember the "Great Texas Freeze" in February 2021. Amid severe winter storms and freezing temperatures, about a third of the state's roughly 30 million residents lost power.
Just east of Texas, Hurricane Idalia hit Florida's Big Bend region on August 30, 2023. Counties like Taylor and Madison saw total power loss.
Weather disasters account for about 80% of all outages. But our power demand keeps growing, too...
Artificial intelligence ("AI") and electric vehicles ("EVs") are two big drivers. Power-hungry data centers and the EV charging infrastructure have placed further strain on an already overworked system.
For example, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, data centers alone could consume up to 12% of our country's electricity by 2028.
Meanwhile, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas says that one company's flagship data center will consume as much energy as 240,000 houses each day.
And over the 10-year period from 2013 to 2023, the amount of EV charging ports increased 845%.
Unfortunately, upgrading our grid will be expensive.
Even back in 2017, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute estimated that modernizing the entire U.S. grid would cost about $5 trillion.
That figure would add about 13% to our current national debt, if the government got involved.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order to ensure grid reliability, but he didn't put any money behind it. At this point, he has mostly canceled clean-energy programs that were pet projects of the previous administration.
Spain's recent blackout shows how serious it can be when a grid fails. America's aging grid could experience similar failure to Spain's without warning. And a failure on that level here would be catastrophic.
So keep an eye on the electrical utility industry's long-term performance. Demand for electricity just keeps increasing. And all that power will have to come from somewhere.
Meanwhile, when you travel, it's probably a good idea to keep a little extra cash in your pocket. It's not fun when the power goes out... no matter where you are.
Good investing,
Joe Austin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.98%
5
17
8
S&P 500
-0.84%
74
283
147
Nasdaq
-0.93%
18
58
24
Small Caps
-1.09%
281
1102
505
Bonds
+0.33%
Utilities
+1.22%
6
21
4
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks are more Bearish than Small Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Industrials
+2.45%
Communication
+2.33%
Information Technology
+2.19%
Utilities
+1.54%
Real Estate
+1.17%
Financial
+1.01%
Materials
+0.28%
Consumer Staples
+0.14%
Consumer Discretionary
-0.76%
Energy
-2.67%
Health Care
-3.55%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Dow Jones REIT Services
4
43
54
Over the past 6 months, the Dow Jones REIT subsector (RWR) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -1.16%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #18 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AKR
Acadia Realty Trust
APLE
Apple Hospitality RE
ARE
Alexandria Real Esta
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
CEG
+10.29%
CE
+9.56%
LDOS
+4.6%
VST
+3.43%
UHS
+3.35%
Losers
MRNA
-12.25%
PLTR
-12.05%
VRTX
-10.03%
CTRA
-9.26%
REGN
-7.47%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Q1
$-0.24
Beat by $0.30
LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc.
Q1
$2.97
Beat by $0.47
EA Electronic Arts Inc.
Q4
$1.24
Beat by $0.16
DUK Duke Energy Corporation
Q1
$1.76
Beat by $0.17
ANET Arista Networks Inc
Q1
$0.65
Beat by $0.06
* * * *
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